3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Friday 4/23/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Aaron Hicks to Hit a Home Run (+700)
Logan Allen is still in the infancy of his MLB career, but early on, he's having a heck of a time with right-handed bats. In the split, Allen has permitted a .371 wOBA across 176 total batters faced. Righties are striking out just 14.8% of the time, and they sport a 43.2% hard-hit rate.
Allen will be up against the New York Yankees, and they have a lot of potent hitters who will swing from the right side. Hicks, a switch-hitter, is one such guy. He put up a .350 wOBA and 42.1% fly-ball rate as a right-handed hitter in 2020. His lone tater this year came against a southpaw.
While Hicks is a long shot to go deep, he is decent dart throw who could pay off in a big way.
Michael Brosseau to Hit a Home Run (+460)
Michael Brosseau does work against lefties, and he's taking on left-hander Steven Matz.
In his career, Brosseau owns a .382 wOBA versus southpaws while posting a 40.6% hard-hit rate and 44.8% fly-ball rate in the split. In 2020's small sample, Brosseau racked up a .455 wOBA against lefties while hitting four homers in 47 plate appearances.
Matz is off to a good start in 2020, posting a 3.71 SIERA, but time will tell how legit that is. Our model projects Matz to give up a slate-high 1.15 dingers tonight, so targeting a homer prop on a Tampa Bay Rays player is a good idea.
I like Brosseau at +460 over Randy Arozarena at +310. Our projections have Brosseau hitting 0.30 homers, which is tied for the fifth-best clip of the night.
Jacob deGrom Under 10.5 Strikeouts (-134)
It says a lot about Jacob deGrom that the line on his strikeouts prop is 10.5. Dude is a monster, and he could make me look real foolish for plugging the under.
But 10.5 is so high, and our model sees a ton of value here, projecting deGrom for only 8.3 strikeouts.
deGrom has a comical 35 strikeouts in just 20 innings so far this year, but the matchup is a tough one. In the early part of the campaign, the Washington Nationals have been tough to strike out as their 22.2% strikeout rate is tied for the third-lowest clip. And deGrom has racked up 11-plus strikeouts in just five of his past 15 starts, dating back to the beginning of the 2020 season.
It feels scary, but a lot of signs point to the under being the right play.
