MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 4/28/21
Which MLB games offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Baltimore Orioles +1.5 (-102): 2 Stars out of 5
The New York Yankees are off to an abysmal start offensively, scoring only 3.57 runs per game, ranking them as the 26th-best offensive team in MLB. The Baltimore Orioles are slightly better at 3.78 runs per game, so they may have a slight batting advantage based on early-season results.
The starting pitching matchup features Domingo German of the Yankees against Dean Kremer of the Orioles. German has been horrendous in his first season back from suspension, as he has a 6.23 ERA, 5.77 FIP, and 1.692 WHIP. He is allowing 2.8 home runs per 9 innings and has been a complete disaster so far this year.
Dean Kremer has not been much better with a 6.75 ERA and 4.58 FIP, making the starting pitching matchup likely a wash. However, given that the Orioles are underdogs in this one, we like their chances to cover the 1.5 runline.
Our model gives the Orioles a 59.97% likelihood to cover this spread, making this a two-star bet.
Texas Rangers +1.5 (-146): 1 Star out of 5
The Texas Rangers should be confident in their chances on Wednesday night as they throw out Dane Dunning on the mound, who has had a fantastic start to this season. Dunning has a 3.06 ERA and 2.46 FIP in his first four starts of the season, and he has 18 strikeouts, 4 walks, and only 1 home run allowed.
Dunning faces the Los Angeles Angels and Alex Cobb, who has had a shaky career since he left Tampa Bay in 2017. He has a 5.17 ERA and 5.05 FIP in 44 starts since the start of 2018, including a 6.28 ERA this season.
Our model gives the Rangers a 59.37% chance to cover the 1.5 runline, making this a good betting opportunity for Wednesday.
Chicago White Sox -1.5 (+100): 1 Star out of 5
The Chicago White Sox are mashing the baseball, averaging five runs per game this season, which is good enough for the fourth-best in Major League Baseball. The Detroit Tigers are on the other end of the offensive spectrum, averaging just 3.08 runs per game, ranking them second-worst in the Majors.
In addition to having a significant advantage in terms of offense, the White Sox also own a major pitching advantage in this game. Carlos Rodon is having a magnificent start to his season with a 0.47 ERA and 2.97 FIP, including a no-hitter. On the other hand, Casey Mize is starting for Detriot, and he has a 5.23 ERA and 6.32 FIP this season and a 6.24 ERA and 6.41 FIP in his career.
Our model likes the White Sox, giving them a 52.15% chance to cover the runline of 1.5. The White Sox are the much better team and should have a good chance to win this game in a blowout.