MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 5/5/21
Which MLB games offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+125): 1 Star out of 5
The Atlanta Braves find themselves one game behind the Washington Nationals in the standings, but they are have been much better than Washington in terms of run production so far this season. The Braves are averaging 4.66 runs per game compared to only 3.52 runs per game for the Nationals.
The Braves also should have the advantage in the pitching matchup with Max Fried going against Erick Fedde. Fried is off to a slow start this year in three starts, but he finished last season with a 2.25 ERA and 3.10 FIP, which was good enough to finish 5th in the Cy Young voting.
Fedde has been a backend starter throughout his career, posting a career ERA of 5.03 and a career FIP of 5.34.
The Braves should have both the starting pitching advantage and offensive advantage tonight. Our model gives them a 44.63% chance to cover the 1.5 runline, making this a one-star bet.
Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+128): 1 Star out of 5
The Milwaukee Brewers are off to a hot start at 17-13, and they are looking to keep their momentum rolling with a win against the Philadelphia Phillies on Wednesday. Milwaukee should see a distinct advantage in the pitching matchup with Freddy Peralta going against Chase Anderson.
Peralta has been amazing this season, posting a 2.25 ERA and 3.00 FIP after putting up a 3.99 ERA and 2.41 FIP out of the bullpen last season. He has a 14.5 K/9 rate, and the Brewers are 4-1 in his first 5 starts.
Anderson takes the bump for the Phillies, and he has a 5.40 ERA and 4.82 FIP this season after producing a 7.22 ERA and 6.16 FIP last season. He appears to be on the downslope of his career, and it will be difficult for the Phillies to keep pace with the Brewers due to the disparity in the pitching matchup.
Our model gives the Brewers a 45.09% chance to cover the runline of 1.5, making this another one-star bet for Wednesday.
Chicago Cubs +1.5 (-128): 2 Stars out of 5
The Los Angeles Dodgers got off to an amazing 13-2 start, but they have since hit a very unexpected extended slump, going just 5-12 in their last 17 games. They have lost 5 of their last 6 games, including getting swept in a doubleheader by the Chicago Cubs yesterday, so they clearly are in a major funk at the moment.
The Dodgers should have the advantage in the pitching matchup, though, as Walker Buehler has a 123 ERA+ and 3.08 FIP this season, compared to an 84 ERA+ and 3.78 FIP from Cubs starter Adbert Alzolay. Even still, the Dodgers' funk cannot be discounted, and the pitching matchup is not a large enough disparity, especially considering the runline is +1.5 for the Cubs.
Our model loves the Cubs chances to cover the runline, giving it a 62.31% likelihood.