3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Friday 5/7/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measure a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
David Peterson Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+120)
David Peterson appears to be a surprise prop, but with cooler weather expected, the New York Mets' pitcher may be a decent bet to strike out six or more batters tonight against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The lefty showed some better form in his last start against Philadelphia where he struck out eight batters in five innings. He does accumulate pitches quickly, but the +120 odds are too juicy to overlook.
2021 has started with a bang, as Peterson owns a 29.0% strikeout rate but does have a 40.3% hard-hit rate allowed. There is also the concern with him averaging around five innings a start, and Arizona will strike out at a rate of 22.9%, which is eighth in the National League and below the league average of 24.3%.
Still, If Peterson can get around 90 pitches or so, he should be able to get six or more strikeouts at Citi Field on Friday night.
DJ LeMahieu to Hit a Home Run (+470)
The New York Yankees' hitter has just one home run in 116 at-bats. There is this growing sense that "he is due," and the matchup is right for him to hit one over the fence tonight at Yankee Stadium.
So far in 2021, LeMahieu is hitting .267 and has a slugging percentage of .336 (lowest since his rookie season). His current 42.6% hard-hit rate is well off from his 48.3% mark in 2019, and his 89 mph exit velocity is also several miles per hour off from his usual level. However, he should see a fair amount of meaty pitches from Patrick Corbin and the Washington Nationals' bullpen this evening.
His current projection is for 0.19 homers, and there definitely is the expectation LeMahieu knocks one over the wall this evening. See if the 2+ hits prop at +170 is a possibility, too.
Mike Foltynewicz Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120)
The under on Mike Foltynewicz to strike out five or fewer batters is intriguing on Friday night. The -120 number has some limited buzz.
Foltynewicz can get some punchouts and is a solid pitcher. Picking the under just has more to do with how long he typically lasts while starting lately. The Texas pitcher tends to wilt as the game goes on, and he has allowed nine home runs in just 33 1/3 innings pitched.
On the other hand, Foltynewicz has a K/9 rate of 8.4, and he does have six or more strikeouts in three of his five starts, which offer additional risk here.
There is one bright side though to this. Our model projects Heaney for 4.98 (5) strikeouts tonight versus the Seattle Mariners. Take the under!
