MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 5/11/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals
Over 9.0 (-105): 3-Star Rating out of 5
This game gives us a pitching matchup of Chase Anderson versus Erick Fedde.
Anderson has been awful to start the year, recording a 5.30 SIERA and 17.8% strikeout rate. In his last full season (2019), Anderson finished with a 4.89 SIERA, so he's been blah for a while. He should be in for a tough night against Juan Soto and company.
Fedde has some positives in his 2021 profile, headlined by a 23.5% strikeout rate. But his 7.0% swinging-strike rate hints at some impending negative regression in the strikeout department, and Fedde's 10.9% walk rate is a career-worst clip.
All in all, this is two pedestrian -- to be kind -- pitchers facing fairly mundane offenses. Our model projects the offenses to win out as we see this being a 5.40-5.27 victory for the Washington Nationals. That's 10.67 total runs, and we think the over hits 57.8% of the time.
Baltimore Orioles at New York Mets
Over 6.5 (-114): 5-Star Rating out of 5
Marcus Stroman and John Means square off in a game with a lowly 6.5-run total -- the kind of number that's usually reserved for the elite-level aces.
Well, Means has been that so far in 2021, pitching to a 3.21 SIERA thanks to a 30.1% strikeout rate and 15.7% swinging-strike rate. Dude has been legit, and he was good in 2020, as well, with a 3.93 SIERA.
It's a little easier to poke holes in Stroman, although the New York Mets' righty has been very good so far this campaign (3.55 SIERA). But if we stretch it back to 2019, his last full season, Stroman doesn't look quite as nice as he ended that year with a 4.41 SIERA.
While this game is two meh offenses facing two pitchers who have been very good in 2021, the 6.5-run total is too low, per our model. There just isn't much room for error for the pitchers with an over/under that low. We forecast the Mets to win 4.58-4.43 -- a total of 9.01 runs. We have the over hitting 76.3% of the time and rate this as a five-star wager.
