3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 5/12/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measure a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Danny Duffy Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-108)
Danny Duffy has struggled a bit with efficiency lately, as he has gone 107 pitches in each of his last two starts while just going 7 and 5 2/3 innings in those outings. However, he did strike out a total of 13 batters in that span which, you guessed it, averages to 6.5 Ks per start.
The lefty was not wild as much as batters were just working counts. He did connect at around a 70% rate on strikes and is 65% overall on the season. That includes a strikeout rate of 28% in the early going, which is well above his career average of 21%.
Duffy just has to calm the heck down sometimes and not get too ahead of himself. He can get ahead on counts but has a tendency not to trust his stuff when trying to finish off batters. Expect him to come close or duplicate his eight-strikeout effort against the Detroit Tigers from a few weeks ago. The Kansas City Royals pitcher is one to trust the over on.
Bryce Harper To Hit A Home Run (+330)
The former Washington Nationals slugger hits a lot of solo home runs but does have seven on the young season in just 99 at-bats. That 14.14 rate is better than his career rate of 20.95 at-bats per round-tripper.
Bryce Harper is seeing his form return closer to that three-year span in Washington but now as a member of the Philadelphia Phillies. Maybe that last season in Washington and first in Philadelphia was just nerves after all. Harper is slashing away with a .992 OPS. That is a good deal above his career average of .902.
Some may think this is risky because of facing Washington but do not fear, as he is facing a declining Jon Lester and has no problem hitting lefties over his career.
Harper had a bagel for two games but snapped out of it yesterday with a home run. After two other hard-hit balls, maybe Harper is back to smashing the ball the way we are used to. Take the elevated plus play and roll with it.
Zack Wheeler Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+154)
The risk is extreme with Zack Wheeler. As one who followed the New York Mets extensively in his development, Wheeler could look like one of the top three pitchers in baseball for a month and then lose it all for two months. One step forward and two steps back.
Wheeler's K/9 rate is 9.3, which is right around his normal career numbers. More importantly, the Philadelphia hurler has six or more strikeouts in each of his last five starts. So, one knows he will be close. In his last three starts, Wheeler has made 23 batters whiff in the breeze.
The big thing is the confidence is there. Wheeler can throw a lot of pitches (100-plus in four of his last five outings). One difference this year, aside from maybe the San Francisco Giants start (three home runs allowed), is Wheeler does not snowball himself into bad innings nearly as often as in his time with New York.
Our model projects fewer innings than usual for Wheeler (6.17) with just over 5 punchouts tonight. However, his strikes looking and strikes swinging have both been well over 10 the past four starts. Take the over against Washington, especially while conditions are not so warm outside.
