MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 5/18/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Detroit Moneyline (+106): 1-Star Rating out of 5
I'll get this out there at the jump -- our model doesn't see much betting value on this slate (as of Tuesday morning). We don't hand any bets more than a two-star rating, and there are only a few two-star wagers.
The pitching matchup pits Spencer Turnbull against Justin Dunn. Dunn has a 6.24 SIERA and 16.9% walk rate across 81 1/3 career innings. Detroit's offense isn't good, but this is a great spot for them. Turnbull, meanwhile, gives the Tigers the pitching edge via his 2021 SIERA of 4.02 and his career SIERA of 4.58.
Our algorithm views this game as a tight one. We have Detroit winning 4.21-4.11, and we think they come out on top 49.3% of the time.
Over 9.0 (-104): 2-Star Rating out of 5
Foltynewicz's 4.31 SIERA is his best mark since 2018, but there are troubling signs. His 7.9% swinging-strike rate tells us his 20.5% strikeout rate should be a few ticks lower, and he's surrendering plenty of juicy contact (39.4% hard-hit rate and 42.6% fly-ball rate). Those aren't the kind of numbers you want to bring into a date with the Bronx Bombers, even if New York's offense is short-handed at the moment.
Taillon has much better ratios -- spearheaded by a 30.7% strikeout rate -- and gets a friendlier matchup against Texas. But his 48.9% fly-ball rate has led to him permitting 2.16 homers per nine innings. He has allowed at least one dnger in six of seven starts this campaign, and Texas has the ninth-most jacks this season thanks to guys like Joey Gallo, Nick Solak and Adolis Garcia.
In all we forecast New York to win 5.53-4.55, which is a total of 10.08 runs. We think the total goes over 9.0 runs 52.6% of the time and rate it as a two-star bet.