MLB

FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Thursday 5/20/21

Ronald Acuña Jr. and the Braves are a great spot to put up some crooked numbers on tonight's main slate. Which other teams should we stack up?

As is often the case on Thursdays, games are spread out throughout the day, leaving us with just a four-game main slate this evening. And as is often the case on these small slates, you're not going to find many pitchers you're comfortable rostering. Between the lack of quality pitching and high temperatures in most of tonight's games, it could be a night that leans more on offense.

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Let's check out the top options on tonight's main slate.

Pitchers

Sandy Alcantara ($9,300): This is a pretty barren pitching selection tonight, but when it comes to both talent and matchup, Alcantara rates out as our most likely candidate to put up a solid score. Alcantara has put forth a 3.85 SIERA, 24.2% strikeout rate, and 7.6% walk rate through nine starts, and a 48.2% ground-ball rate has helped him avoid the long ball. The Phillies' active roster comes in with a 26.1% strikeout rate and 92 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching, boosting the strikeout potential for Alcantara, and his ability to limit dingers should help him avoid trouble in a homer-friendly Citizens Bank Park.

Vince Velasquez ($7,900): Oh boy, here we go. You know it's that kind of slate when Velasquez is under consideration. But the truth is his 4.36 SIERA isn't egregious, and his 28.9% strikeout rate will go a long way towards racking up fantasy points. Of course, the issue is a 14.8% walk rate and 2.15 home runs allowed per nine innings, although a 24.1% homer-to-fly-ball rate does suggest some poor luck in the latter department. But the real reason he's listed is because of the opponent: the Miami Marlins. Not only do the Marlins have a 26.7% strikeout rate and 84 wRC+ against righties, but they're also one of the worst teams in both walk rate (7.1%) and ISO (.125) -- which means they might not be able to exploit the two main areas of concern for Velasquez.

Drew Smyly ($7,100): We're not expecting high pitching scores, so a floor play like Smyly might be enough to get by, particularly at this salary. Smyly's numbers have been disappointing across the board, so this is all about the matchup against Pittsburgh. The Pirates are one of the worst offenses in baseball and have only produced a 77 wRC+ versus lefties this season, which is why we see them sitting on a middling 3.57 implied total despite Smyly's struggles. The left-hander is coming off back-to-back quality starts with 98 pitches in each, so here's hoping he can make it three in a row.

Hitters

Atlanta Braves: Okay, that was a rough pitching section, but thankfully, things get a whole lot merrier on the hitting side. The Braves face Wil Crowe, who checks all sorts of stacking boxes with a 4.95 SIERA, 19.1% strikeout rate, 11.2% walk rate, and 41.7% ground-ball rate. There isn't really anything specifically that Crowe is doing well, and he also got roughed up across three outings in 2020, as well.

As is usually the case with Atlanta, the top six projected batters in the lineup are all appealing options, and outside of the high salaries of Ronald Acuna ($4,400) and Freddie Freeman ($4,100), everyone else will be all too easy to fit in. Even bottom-of-the-order bats like William Contreras ($3,300) and Guillermo Heredia ($2,400) haven't been total zeros at the plate if you're making a bunch of lineups, too.

Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox: I'm lumping these two together, as this is arguably the best hitting environment on the slate in TD Ballpark, particularly on another warm evening in Florida.

Starting the Blue Jays, they check in with a hefty 5.32 implied total against Nick Pivetta. It's hard to know what to make of Pivetta, as he continues to post strong results in spite of a 4.64 SIERA and 12.8% walk rate. He isn't allowing home runs, but a 7.0% homer-to-fly-ball rate looks suspect for a guy with a painful 17.1% career mark. That said, he has respectable numbers versus right-handed batters -- which is mostly what we'll see from Toronto -- with a 4.15 xFIP, 24.2% strikeout rate, and 9.5% walk rate.

That last part gives me some pause if the Blue Jays are going to be popular, but between the high walk rate and low ground-ball rate, there's definitely a path towards Pivetta having issues against a strong lineup in a hitter-friendly venue. While the studs atop the order are getting up there in salary, Teoscar Hernandez ($3,300), Randal Grichuk ($3,200), and Lourdes Gurriel ($2,700) still offer up plenty of power in the mid-to-low range.

Pivetta owns a 5.05 xFIP versus left-handed hitters this season, so Cavan Biggio ($2,800) and Rowdy Tellez ($2,200) have some added value, too.

On the other side, Boston's spot against Steven Matz is pretty straightforward. The southpaw is ruthless in lefty-lefty matchups, but when it comes to righties, he has a modest 22.0% strikeout rate and an ongoing issue with coughing up home runs. He's allowing 1.47 home runs per nine innings to righty sticks in 2021 and 1.68 in the split over his career.

J.D. Martinez ($4,300) and Xander Bogaerts ($3,600) are the clear winners, and then you can round out the stack with any of the other low-salaried right-handed bats in the order. Lefties Rafael Devers ($4,100) and Alex Verdugo ($3,100) will have a tougher time versus Matz, but they remain in the mix as quality hitters in a power-boosting ballpark.

Miami Marlins: You'll have to find a way to differentiate somewhere on the small slate, and the Marlins might be the way to do it. Yes, Velasquez is a "top pitcher" tonight, but we know he can historically implode in any matchup, and that could even be against a team like Miami.

Sure, it's not an exciting lineup to stack by any means, but Jazz Chisholm ($3,500), Jesus Aguilar ($3,100), and Adam Duvall ($3,300) are all displaying nice power, and Miguel Rojas ($3,000) ought to be sandwiched between them in the two-hole. Corey Dickerson ($2,300) and Brian Anderson ($2,600) haven't demonstrated quite as much pop yet, but they've had respectable power over their careers, so they can round out Miami stacks, too.

As noted earlier, Citizens Bank Park gives a park factor bump to home runs, which is particularly notable for a team that normally plays in a pitcher-friendly ballpark like the Marlins.

Others to Consider: Los Angeles Dodgers