MLB Betting Guide: Monday 5/24/21
Which MLB games offer betting value on Soccer odd? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets
New York Mets -1.5 (+152): 1 Star out of 5
The New York Mets have suffered an injury crisis recently with seven of their nine Opening Day starters currently on the injured list. However, the Mets have managed to continue to play good baseball despite the injuries, and they remain in first place in the NL East.
The Colorado Rockies are a solid 16-12 at home but are a putrid 2-17 away from Coors Field this season. Only 3 of the Rockies' 17 road losses have come by one run, so the majority of their road games are not even competitive.
Our model gives the Mets a 44.11% chance to cover the runline of 1.5, and the +152 odds make that a one-star bet.
Cleveland Indians vs. Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers -1.5 (+158): 1 Star out of 5
The Detroit Tigers are seven games behind the Indians in the AL Central, but they are slightly favored in this game due to a massive advantage in the pitching matchup.
The Tigers start Spencer Turnbull, who is coming off a no-hitter and has a 2.88 ERA and 2.77 FIP this season in 34.1 innings. His expected ERA is 3.09, so his strong start has not been a fluke, and he is proving himself as a legitimate frontline starter.
Meanwhile, the Cleveland Indians are starting rookie Sam Hentges, who has a 6.46 ERA. 7.19 FIP, 2.087 WHIP, and 7.56 expected ERA this season. Hentges doesn't appear to be ready for the Majors just yet, as he is ranking towards the bottom of the league in all major pitching categories.
Our model gives the Tigers a 39.84% chance to cover the runline of 1.5, and that is enough to make this a one-star bet given the plus odds on them to cover.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins
Over 9.0 Runs (-104): 2 Stars out of 5
The Baltimore Orioles start John Means, who has a sparkling 1.70 ERA this season but also has an expected ERA is 3.14, indicating that his dominance to start the season may not be entirely sustainable. The Orioles also rank poorly in bullpen ERA at 4.19, so they are unlikely to keep the Minnesota Twins off the scoreboard in this one.
However, the Orioles will be looking for an offensive outburst, as well, because Twins starter Matt Shoemaker has a 6.08 ERA this season to go along with an expected ERA of 6.19. On top of that, the Twins' bullpen has performed even worse than the Orioles’ group so far this season, as they have a 4.83 team bullpen ERA.
This game should produce runs, and our model likes a total of 9.91 runs in the game, putting it well above the 9.0 game total. Our model gives a 51.10% likelihood of over 9 runs and a 10.8% likelihood of a push, making this a two-star bet.
