3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 5/26/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measure a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Trevor Williams Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+114)
The Chicago Cubs' starter does not pitch for long typically.
He averages under five innings a start and his longest outing of the season was his opening start (six innings). Williams has not even pitched five innings or more in a month. The righty is usually on a pitch count of 70-80 pitches or so.
For 2021, his strikeout rate is 23.7%, but that is 4.3 percentage points above his career-high. Is it a sustainable spike or will he regress?
The Pittsburgh Pirates are normally a good matchup, but they do strike out at a slightly lower than the league average rate of 23.2%. It may be best to take the risk with the plus money on this one.
The projection suggests Williams getting 4.55 strikeouts today. That is awfully close. The wiggle room says to ride the under.
Justin Upton to Hit a Home Run (+270)
This pick is a nice one especially with Justin Upton staying healthy.
Yes, the slugger is approaching 34 years old, but he is swatting home runs out at the rate he did last year. That 1 every 14.1 at-bat rate looks rather attractive today.
The Angels get to face Dane Dunning, who is striking out batters at a rate of 26.1%, but he gave up a home run every 8-plus innings last year. This year, that number is 21-plus innings per gopher ball, though.
Upton has a decent projection of 0.17 home runs, according to our model. The +270 odds seem decent enough against a pitcher who has seven wild pitches on the season already. When he tries to compensate is when the big flies may come.
Griffin Canning Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+138)
He has now struck out 34 batters in 38 1/3 innings this season. Canning is now at a strikeout rate of 25.3% overall, and his rate is more like 27.5% in May, which is not surprising as it warms up, and the movement has improved.
The Texas Rangers were no-hit a week ago by Corey Kluber. Offense has been hard to come by, so that may be enough to keep Canning in the game longer. His swinging strike percentage is a whopping 27.2%, and Texas approaches 28% on the road (25.9% overall). The over is worth a risk despite the low 4.75 strikeout projection.