MLB

3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 5/27/21

Chris Wassel  —  @ChrisWasselDFS May 27th, 2021
The Thursday slate is a bit afternoon heavy, but we'll focus on a few quick evening MLB player props. Which bets stand out?

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measure a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.

Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Dylan Cease Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+122)

The Chicago White Sox pitcher has struggled a little bit lately with control, which has impacted his innings pitched and strikeout totals. He has averaged just five innings a start over his previous three outings, leading to only 16 combined strikeouts.

But in his previous 30 1/3 innings, Cease fanned 40 batters. For 2021, his strikeout rate is 29%, which is 4.1 percentage points above his career high. Could Cease bounce back a bit?

The Baltimore Orioles on the road are usually a good matchup. While they only strike out 22.9% of the time overall, that number jumps to 24.7% on the road (a fraction above the 24% league average).

Our projections have Cease getting 5.2 strikeouts today but only pitching 5.15 innings. That seems low, and with an increasing plus number, the over does look worth taking a swing on.

Jose Abreu to Hit a Home Run (+280)

It's a pleasant surprise to see Jose Abreu nearing +300 today. The first baseman is almost 35 years old, and yet he is slamming baseballs out of the park at a rate of 1 in every 15.6 at-bats.

The White Sox gets to face Bruce Zimmermann, who is projected to give up a slate-leading 1.24 home runs on Thursday night. Someone is hitting at least one for Chicago and maybe more.

Abreu enjoys a great projection of 0.27 home runs, according to our model. The +280 odds are awfully meaty given how poor Baltimore is on the road and how many runs and home runs they allow.

Shohei Ohtani Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+102)

Shohei Ohtani should only be used as a prop here if he stays at plus value. This could swing negative quickly, as the number has come down to +102.

While Ohtani has struggled with control at times, he has now struck out 45 batters in 30 innings this season. His strikeout rate is an absurd 34.9%.

The Oakland Athletics are a good team at home, but they have a strikeout rate right near the league average at 24.2%. Ohtani had a bit of an off start against Cleveland with only five strikeouts, but every other start has seen Ohtani whiff seven or more opponents. Take the over.