3 Under-the-Radar MLB FanDuel Plays for Wednesday 6/2/21
When being contrarian in daily fantasy sports, there's a fine line between taking a calculated risk and being reckless. But differentiating your lineups from everyone else's is the name of the game if you plan on taking down one of those highly lucrative DFS tournaments. Whether it's because of bookmaker totals, other options at a given position, or some gem you've found who everyone is overlooking, we can always find potential under-rostered plays if we look hard enough.
Here are three such players to consider branching out for on FanDuel's main slate.
Drew Smyly, P, Atlanta Braves ($7,600)
Pitching is very straightforward tonight, but that doesn't mean you can't be different.
It's very clear that Walker Buehler ($9,700) and Sean Manaea ($8,500) are going to be the two most popular pitchers on the slate due to their matchups and their salaries. This should make pivoting away from them a viable option for tournaments, and this is where Drew Smyly could come into play. For this season, Smyly has been an absolute roller coaster. He is all over the place with his performances, and that generally creates some hesitation for people because there's too much uncertainty.
However, his matchup tonight could allow him to reach for his ceiling, all while being far less popular than the other pitching options. He is going up against the Washington Nationals, who come in with a 112 wRC+ versus left-handed pitchers, which is the seventh-best in the league. That's good, so why would we target the Nationals?
Well, we need to look deeper into their stats. They also come in with a .141 ISO (26th in the league), a 24.0% strikeout rate (15th), and a 31.3% fly-ball rate (28th) versus lefties. So actually, the Nationals aren't a big power-hitting team. Sure, they get players on base and produce runs that way, but if Smyly is able to limit that tonight, he has some sneaky upside.
Cedric Mullins, OF, Baltimore Orioles ($2,900)
I'm officially putting Cedric Mullins on home run watch tonight. There are a few factors going into such a bold declaration, but don't worry, they are all good factors.
Let's start with the easy stuff. This game is in Baltimore, which is a solid hitter's park, and we have some wind blowing out tonight. Next, Mullins will be facing off against Randy Dobnak, who is truly terrible against left-handed hitters this season. He comes in allowing 3.48 HR/9, a 5.30 xFIP, an 11.8% strikeout rate, and a 30.8% HR/FB rate. Those are some seriously rough numbers, and it really just means you should be targeting him for home run upside.
Mullins is having an awesome year at the dish, coming in with a 140 wRC+, .200 ISO, 44.3% fly-ball rate, and a 38.9% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. Given the fact the Baltimore Orioles have the seventh-lowest (4.45) implied run total tonight, they shouldn't be popular in tournaments, creating plenty of upside for Mullins and their hitters.
Mike Brosseau, 2B/3B, Tampa Bay Rays ($2,400)
If the Tampa Bay Rays are going to be undervalued tonight, it's a great time to take a shot with them in tournaments.
We all know how good the Rays have been in recent weeks, and they come into tonight with a surprisingly low (3.95) implied run total. This is a bit surprising because they are on the road to take on the New York Yankees, which is a positive park shift for them.
If we are in a hitter's park but no one is looking to roster the Rays, are they one of the highest-upside teams tonight? They certainly could be, and that means you want power upside, which brings Michael Brosseau into the conversation. This season versus left-handed pitchers, he has a solid .197 ISO, 106 wRC+, 48.7% fly-ball rate, and a 30.8% hard-contact rate.
He will be going up against Jordan Montgomery, who is allowing 1.54 HR/9, a 4.26 xFIP, a 41.0% fly-ball rate, and a 35.5% hard-contact rate. Giving up a ton of fly balls at Yankee Stadium is a path to a quick exit for a pitcher, and that is the upside you should be attacking.
