4 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for Thursday 6/3/21
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-salaried slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-salaried NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-salaried play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's eight-game main slate, which locks at 7:05 PM Eastern.
Griffin Canning, SP, Los Angeles Angels ($8,400)
On the pitching slate tonight, there's Yu Darvish ($11,500) and Lance Lynn ($11,000), and then there's everyone else. Griffin Canning seems to stand out as the top play among the jumble of mid-range options.
The righty will have the pleasure of going up against the Seattle Mariners tonight, an honor that's proven fruitful for many a pitcher. Versus right-handed pitchers, Seattle sports a 25.5% strikeout rate this season, which is good for 10th-highest in the league, according to FanGraphs. The Mariners' wRC+ of 87 is also tied for sixth-lowest in the Majors. When Canning faced the M's at the start of May, he racked up nine punch-outs and 49 FanDuel points.
Canning's 5.40 ERA might seem ugly, but his 4.14 SEIRA paints a different picture. The 25-year-old's 25.9% strikeout rate should play well against this offense, and, having amassed 32 or more FanDuel points in four of his last five starts, he should have a relatively safe floor tonight.
Omar Narvaez, C, Milwaukee Brewers ($2,200)
Somehow, the Milwaukee Brewers of all teams have the slate's highest implied total at 5.29, according to numberFire's Matchup Heat Map. That means a Brewers stack is very much in play today, and Omar Narvaez should be a staple in any builds.
In 41.1 career innings in the big leagues, Arizona Diamondbacks starter Jon Duplantier has pitched to the tune of a 4.79 ERA, and as a starter, that number jumps to 6.62.
Meanwhile, Narvaez has been one of the Brewers' best hitters this season, getting on base at a .383 clip. As has been the case for most of his career, Narvaez has especially raked against righties, with each of his 4 homers and all but 1 of 14 RBI coming versus opposite-handed pitchers.
Brandon Crawford, SS, San Francisco Giants ($2,600)
Through 50.1 innings this season, Chicago Cubs right-hander Zach Davies possesses a 4.65 ERA, but his 5.81 SIERA and 6.89 ERA imply that he's been much worse than that. Davies has never been much of a strikeout pitcher, but his K rate of 12.6% is terrible, even by his standards -- not to mention that it comes pretty close to matching his 11.7% walk rate this season.
Tonight, Davies will be taking on the San Francisco Giants, which is great news for the likes of Brandon Crawford.
Since the start of last season, the veteran shortstop has amassed a .893 OPS and a .261 ISO in 282 plate appearance versus righties. This season, those numbers are .980 and .287, respectively -- and he's gotten on base at a near-.400 clip (.397, to be exact).
Adam Duvall, OF, Miami Marlins ($2,800)
Pittsburgh Pirates southpaw Tyler Anderson hasn't had a bad season -- as indicated by his 4.07 SIERA -- though, as has been the case for his entire career, he has been susceptible to the long ball.
Anderson is ceding 1.6 dongs per nine frames through 56.1 innings this season, and 1.6 just so happens to be his exact average since 2017.
If we're chasing homers, one hitter who could take Anderson deep tonight is Adam Duvall. In 138 plate appearances against lefties since 2019, Duvall has a ridiculous .320 ISO. Stacking him with Garrett Cooper ($2,500), Jesus Aguilar ($2,700), or even Jazz Chisholm ($3,000) is far from the worst idea.
