MLB Betting Guide: Monday 6/7/21
Which MLB games offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Miami Marlins +1.5 (-142): 2 Stars out of 5
Pablo Lopez takes the mound for the Miami Marlins and he gives them a great chance to win every time he takes the ball. Lopez boasts a 2.82 ERA and a 3.41 FIP this season and his expected ERA is 3.46. His FIP and XERA indicate he may be slightly outperforming his actual ERA but he is still clearly a very good pitcher.
The Boston Red Sox will start Nick Pivetta, who is also having a good season with a 3.77 ERA and a 3.69 expected ERA. Pivetta is lagging slightly behind Lopez statistically this season and he has less of a track record, with a career ERA of 5.20 compared to 4.10 for Lopez.
Our model gives the Marlins a 64.09% chance to cover the runline of 1.5, making this a 2-star bet for Monday night.
Los Angeles Angels -1.5 (+132): 2 Stars out of 5
The pitching matchup is an interesting one with Jackson Kowar making his MLB debut for the Kansas City Royals, facing Dylan Bundy for the Los Angeles Angels. Kowar was fantastic in AAA this season, posting a 0.85 ERA in 6 starts but he has limited experience in the upper minors, so it is difficult to gauge how he will perform.
Bundy has struggled this season with a 6.49 ERA but his XERA is actually much better at 3.98. He could be due for some better luck and certainly, his true performance is better than what his current ERA is showing.
Our model likes the Angels, giving them a 50.59% chance to cover the runline of 1.5 and making this another 2-star bet.
Chicago Cubs +1.5 (-176): 2 Stars out of 5
The Chicago Cubs are +1.5 in this game but they do have a good pitching matchup, with Adbert Alzolay going against Ryan Weathers of the San Diego Padres. Ryan Weathers has a strong ERA of 2.06 but his advanced stats indicate that his ERA is not at all sustainable. Weathers has a 4.31 FIP and a 5.28 expected ERA, so we can expect to see some major corrections to his true ERA as he throws more innings.
Alzolay has a higher ERA than Weathers at 3.62 but a better FIP at 3.93 and a better than expected ERA at 3.82. The Cubs are also averaging more runs per game than the Padres this season (4.56, compared to 4.52), so the Padres do not have the advantage there either.
Our model likes the Cubs to win by a final score of 4.17-3.70 and we like the Cubs at +1.5 as a 2-star bet.