MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 6/9/21
Which MLB games offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-105): 1 Star out of 5
This matchup features the second-best offense in baseball against the worst offense in baseball. The Los Angeles Dodgers are averaging 5.30 runs per game compared to 3.54 runs per game for the Pittsburgh Pirates. This is obviously a huge discrepancy so the Pirates will be in trouble against the Dodgers unless they have a major advantage in the pitching matchup.
The Pirates start Tyler Anderson, who has a 4.67 ERA and a 4.33 xERA, so he grades out as an average back-end starter. The Dodgers start Tony Gonsolin, who is making his first start of the season but has posted a 2.60 ERA and 3.02 FIP in 86.2 innings pitched in his career.
Our model gives the Dodgers a 54.49% chance to cover the runline of 1.5 making this a 1-star bet for Wednesday.
Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (-160): 2 Stars out of 5
The Cincinnati Reds are five games behind the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central but they have been the better offensive team, scoring 4.88 runs per game compared to only 3.93 runs per game for the Brewers.
The Brewers have won with their dominant pitching but they do not have the advantage in Wednesday’s pitching matchup. They start Brett Anderson, who has a 4.42 ERA and 5.63 FIP to go along with an atrocious 8.68 expected ERA. The Reds start Vladimir Gutierrez, who has a 2.70 ERA in only 10 innings this season.
Our model gives the Reds a 66.54% chance to cover the spread of 1.5 runs and that makes this a 2-star betting opportunity.
Chicago White Sox -1.5 (+130): 1 Star out of 5
The Chicago White Sox and Toronto Blue Jays are two of the best offensive teams in baseball, with the White Sox averaging 4.95 runs per game (3rd) compared to 4.88 runs per game for the Blue Jays (8th).
However, this matchup may be more about the pitching as the White Sox have Lance Lynn throwing and he is in the midst of a fantastic season. Lynn has a sparkling 1.23 ERA and 3.03 FIP, and his expected ERA is 2.64. Having a sub-2 ERA may not be sustainable for Lynn, but he is clearly having a great campaign.
The Blue Jays throw out Alek Manoah, who has a 3.86 ERA in 9.1 MLB inning and a 6.68 FIP. He is still mostly an unknown given his lack of MLB experience but it will certainly be a major challenge for the rookie to match up with Lynn given the way he's pitching.
Our model gives the White Sox a 47.14% likelihood to cover the runline of 1.5, and given the plus odds, that makes this a 1-star bet.