3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 6/10/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measure a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Trevor Rogers Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-102)
Trevor Rogers to get seven-plus punchouts on Thursday against a light-hitting Colorado Rockies team looks like a pretty nice bet.
Rogers' rate stats are excellent, including a 29.7% strikeout rate. The problem with him is his workload as he's worked past the sixth inning only once in his past eight starts. So if he's going to get to the over on this line, he'll need to be efficient.
He can do that against the Rockies. Colorado has been miserable on the road this year, holding the worst wOBA (.253) in the split while striking out 27.1% of the time.
Rogers should dominate, and we project him to strike out 6.78 batters over 5.44 innings.
Jesus Aguilar to Hit a Home Run (+460)
Jesus Aguilar at +460 to knock one over the fence is a nice price in a date with Chi Chi Gonzalez.
Aguilar is having a good year. He's got a .342 wOBA with 12 homers, and he's posting a career-low 17.1% strikeout rate. Ten of his 12 jacks have come in righty-righty matchups, so that shouldn't scare you away.
Gonzalez isn't good. He's yielded six round-trippers over his last seven appearances, and he is striking out only 12.3% of hitters.
Miami is a fun stacking option tonight, and I like Aguilar to go yard.
Eduardo Rodriguez Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+126)
Going with the over on Eduardo Rodriguez's strikeouts prop this evening against the Houston Astros is a dangerous bet. That's because Houston is fantastic against lefties, but there are reasons to back E-Rod.
For one, Rodriguez is pitching much better than his 5.59 ERA would have you believe as his SIERA sits at 3.49, a career-best clip. He's also got a 26.1% strikeout rate and is fanning 10.09 per nine innings. And while we're still dealing with small samples, E-Rod has been much better at home this year, posting a 31.1% strikeout rate at Fenway, compared to a 24.0% clip in his travels.
Our model has Rodriguez fanning 5.62 batters across 5.48 innings on Thursday night. We're right at this line, and with the over priced at +126, that's where I'm going.
