FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Monday 6/14/21
The beauty of daily fantasy baseball is that the top targets are different each and every day. Whether it's the right-handed catcher who destroys left-handed pitching or the mid-range hurler facing a depleted lineup, you're not going to find yourself using the same assets time after time.
While this breaks up the monotony, it can make it hard to decide which players are primed to succeed on a given day. We can help bridge that gap.
In addition to our custom optimal lineups, you can check out our batting and pitching heat maps, which show the pieces in the best spot to succeed on that slate. Put on the finishing touches with our games and lineups page to see who's hitting where and what the weather looks like, and you'll have yourself a snazzy-looking team to put up some big point totals.
If you need help getting started on that trek, here are some of the top options on the board today. We'll be focusing exclusively on the main slate.
Lance Lynn ($11,000) - While we do have 13 games on tonight's slate, dissecting the pitching options isn't as simple as it may seem. The matchup between the Chicago White Sox and Tampa Bay Rays will see Lance Lynn toeing the rubber versus Tyler Glasnow ($10,800), and neither of those guys is a sure thing. Glasnow's facing a Chicago offense that ranks sixth in the league with a wRC+ of 107 against righties, per FanGraphs. Tampa's ace will also have the disadvantage of being on the road -- in seven road starts this season, Glasnow has yet to eclipse 46 FanDuel points. That brings us to Lynn. His matchup is much juicier -- while they have a 109 wRC+ versus right-handed pitchers this season, the Rays are striking out at a 26.1% clip in that split, which is the fourth-highest rate in the majors. That said, Lynn has reached 50 fantasy points since his second outing of the campaign, so paying $11,000 for him comes with plenty of risk.
Adam Wainwright ($8,000) - Since 2019, Wainwright has some insane home/road splits. In 119.1 on the road, the veteran has been battered for a 5.88 ERA, however, in 191.2 at Busch Stadium during that stretch, he's garnered a 2.72 ERA. And that's a large enough sample to take stock in. Tonight, the 39-year-old will be taking the mound against a Miami Marlins team that ranks middle-of-the-pack with a 94 wRC+ versus righties, but their 25.7% strikeout rate in that split is good for seventh-worst. Wainwright has gone at least seven innings in five of his last six home starts, and he's racked up at least 43 FanDuel points in four of those six efforts.
Kenta Maeda ($6,600) - You want some extreme value at pitcher today? Kenta Maeda could be your guy. The 33-year-old has been nowhere close to the dominant pitcher we saw in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, but he also hasn't been as bad as his raw numbers might suggest. While Maeda's ERA currently sits at 5.27, his 4.04 xFIP and 4.15 SIERA suggest that he's been significantly better than that. A lot of that has to do with a .336 BABIP (batting average on balls in-play), which topped out at .243 in his previous two campaigns. Tonight, the righty will get a chance to get back on course against a Seattle Mariners offense that ranks eighth-worst with an 87 wRC+ versus righties, as well as fifth-worst with a 26.0% strikeout rate in that split.
San Diego Padres: According to numberFire's Matchup Heat Map, the Padres have an implied run total of 6.18, which is nearly a run higher than any team not playing in Coors Field. Coors has a Park Factor of 1.36 runs, and the next-closest stadium is Great Ameican Ball Park, which sits at 1.11, per FantasyPros. In other words, let's stack the Padres tonight.
San Diego will be squaring off against Austin Gomber, who has been a pleasant surprise for the Colorado Rockies this season. Gomber's pitched to the tune of a 3.95 ERA, and his 3.42 xERA and 3.75 xFIP imply that he's not at all in over his head. The southpaw has also amassed a 1.33 ERA at home this season, but the 20.1-inning sample size is not enough to read into. Gomber is ceding 1.3 homers per nine innings to right-handed batters in 2021, so we should certainly look to stack some righties against him tonight.
With a salary that's $600 higher than any other hitter on the slate, fading Fernando Tatis Jr. ($5,000) might not be the worst idea, especially when you consider that he's been significantly better versus righties since the start of 2020. Instead, we can focus on the likes of Tommy Pham ($3,300), Manny Machado ($4,100), and Wil Myers ($2,600). Lefty Eric Hosmer ($2,900) has been fantastic in same-sided matchups this season and is worthy of consideration.
Pham, in particular, is worth highlighting. Over his last 22 games, the 33-year-old has an OPS of 1.011, to go with 8 extra-base hits, 15 runs scored, 13 RBI, and 8 stolen bases. This season, he has a 134 wRC+ against southpaws.
Garrett only has 14.2 big league innings to his name, which isn't enough to read into, though an xERA north of 8.00 isn't great.
St. Louis has a number of hitters who salivate at the sight of a southpaw on the mound against them. Nolan Arenado ($3,400), Yadier Molina ($2,600), Tommy Edman ($2,800), and Dylan Carlson ($2,400) each have a wRC+ of 160 or better against lefties this season. Versus southpaws, Arenado has a career .999 OPS and .284 ISO, Edman has a career .951 OPS., .253 ISO, and 153 wRC+, and Molina's posted a .859 OPS and .238 ISO since 2017.
Of course, we haven't even touched on Paul Goldschmidt ($3,100), who sports a 1.005 OPS, .263 ISO, and 164 wRC+ with the platoon advantage in his career. All in all, there is no shortage of stackable options in the Cardinals lineup tonight.
Pittsburgh Pirates: The Pirates have the second-worst offense in all of baseball, and yet they might be one of the most intriguing contrarian stacks of the day, especially if you plan on paying up for either Lynn or Glasnow.
Pittsburgh will be going up against the Washington Nationals and veteran lefty Jon Lester, who simply just isn't very good anymore. Since 2019, Lester has posted an ERA of 4.58, a strikeout rate under 20%, and a whip greater than 1.4, all while ceding 1.4 dongs per nine frames. Lester's xERA has been higher than 5.0 for most of that stretch, and his 5.24 this season isn't very encouraging.
Believe it or not, the Pirates do have some bats that we'll want to target in this spot. In an admittedly small sample size of 33 plate appearances, Ke'Bryan Hayes ($3,000) has a ridiculous .469 average, 1.360 OPS, .406 ISO, and 264 wRC+ against southpaws. Hayes has posted a .352, 1.072 OPS, and .305 ISO through 142 career plate appearances overall, so until he shows signs of hitting a wall, we'll want to roster the 24-year-old.
For under $3,000, we can look to Bryan Reynolds ($2,800) and Jacob Stallings ($2,100). In 76 trips to the plate versus opposite-handed pitchers in 2021, Reynolds has bashed for a 1.011 OPS, .265 ISO, and 174 wRC+. Meanwhile, Stallings has an .875 OPS, .238 ISO, and 134 wRC+ in this split since 2019. Lefty Adam Frazier ($2,400) has had enough success in same-sided matchups that he's also worthy of inclusion in some stacks.