3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Monday 6/14/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measure a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Jake Arrieta Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+108)
Monday night features a ton of risk on this slate but Jake Arrieta could fan five New York Mets batters if the rain does not delay or postpone this game.
The danger is plenty here. Arrieta pitches a maximum of six innings. He does have six or more strikeouts in two of his last four starts, including six in just five innings versus the San Diego Padres of all teams. His strikeout rate is below the league average at 18.3% and his walk rate is above at 9%. The Mets are at 24% for their K rate which is right near the NL middle-ground.
Arrieta may be able to manage this prop. Again, the Mets strike out at a rate of one in every four plate appearances at home.
Arrieta should pitch just well enough, and we project him to strike out 4.93 batters over 3.86 innings. That seems light given how light-hitting New York can be at home. Take the over.
J.D. Martinez to Hit a Home Run (+310)
J.D. Martinez at +310 to hit a home run at home? That sounds pretty good. Hopefully, the rain holds off long enough at Fenway Park Monday night.
Martinez is batting .310 to go along with his 13 home runs. He only has one home run since May 21st but Martinez will not hit .225 forever (batting average in June). His .286 BABiP over the past several weeks will not persist much longer either.
Alek Manoah is okay but tends to give up the gopher ball. He's yielded three round-trippers over his first three appearances.
Boston is an easy stacking option against Toronto on Monday. Martinez is a good bet to go yard.
Lance Lynn Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+112)
Throw out what the opposition does against teams. Lance Lynn is on fire right now with a 7-1 record, a 1.23 ERA, and a 0.883 WHIP.
For one, Lynn has a K/9 rate of 9.9. That is below the 10.5 he sported the last two full seasons (2018 and 2019). At 34, the Chicago White Sox' starting pitcher is having one of those career seasons people talk about for years. His hard-hit rate is 39.3% but that may be because his pitches have shown extra movement. Also. his WPA (win probability added) is 1.9 which is right around his career-highs of just over 2.
Our model has Rodriguez fanning 6.58 batters across 5.98 innings on Monday night but he could easily go 7-plus innings. The prop is overpriced at +112 and that's the plan of attack.
