MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 6/16/21

Freddy Peralta takes the mound against Tyler Mahle on Wednesday in what should provide a very entertaining pitching matchup. How should we bet that contest?

Which MLB games offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook? Let's see where we can zero in.

Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.

Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Miami Marlins -1.5 (+152): 1 Star out of 5

The Miami Marlins face the St. Louis Cardinals on Wednesday afternoon and they should have a great chance to win this game given their major advantage in the pitching matchup.

The Marlins start Sandy Alcantara who boasts a 3.39 ERA and an even better 2.97 expected ERA. He opposes Johan Oviedo of the Cardinals who has a 5.72 ERA and 5.47 xERA in 28.1 innings pitched this season.

The Cardinals (4.15 runs per game) are slightly better than the Marlins (3.92 runs per game) offensively but not enough to make up for the discrepancy in the starting pitching matchup. Miami has the advantage here and we give them a 52.04% chance to cover the runline of 1.5.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (-156): 1 Star out of 5

This game features an exciting pitching matchup between Freddy Peralta and Tyler Mahle. Peralta (2.25 ERA) has an ERA more than one run below Mahle (3.56 ERA) but they are much closer in expected ERA, so the gap between them may not be as large as ERA makes it appear.

Mahle has a 3.11 xERA and Peralta has a 2.51 xERA, so while Peralta still has the advantage here, the gap has certainly closed significantly. The Cincinnati Reds also rank way ahead of the Milwaukee Brewers offensively, averaging 5.14 runs per game compared to 4.05 runs per game for Milwaukee.

Our model likes the Reds +1.5 and gives it a 62.79% likelihood, making this a one-star bet.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Indians

Baltimore Orioles +1.5 (-146): 2 Stars out of 5

The Baltimore Orioles are in last place at 22-43 this season but they should have a good chance against the Cleveland Indians given the pitching matchup on Wednesday.

The Indians start Aaron Civale who has a sparkling 3.17 ERA, but it does not appear to be sustainable based on his underlying statistics. Civale has a 4.25 FIP and 4.25 xERA and he is only striking out 7.1 batters per 9 innings this season. His mound opponent is Keegan Akin who has a worse ERA at 4.13 but a better FIP at 3.99, a better K/9 rate at 7.5, and a better xERA at 3.85.

Akin gives the Orioles a chance to at least keep this game close, and we give the Orioles a 64.36% likelihood to cover the runline of 1.5, making this a 2-star bet for Wednesday.