MLB Betting Guide: Monday 6/21/21
Which MLB games offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Houston Astros -1.5 (+102): 1 Star out of 5
The Houston Astros are having a very strong season at 43-28 and they look to be a legitimate World Series contenders. They face the Baltimore Orioles, who have the worst record in the American League at 23-48.
The Astros also own the advantage in the pitching matchup with Jake Odorizzi facing Keegan Akin. Odorizzi has a lackluster 5.68 ERA but he fairs better in FIP at 4.63 and even better in xERA at 3.86. He faces Keegan Akin who has a 5.76 ERA and 4.03 xERA, so Odorizzi has the advantage in both categories.
Our model gives the Astros a 52.26% chance to cover the runline of 1.5, making this a 1-star bet.
Oakland Athletics -1.5 (+126): 2 Stars out of 5
The Oakland Athletics are already 18 games ahead of the Texas Rangers this season but Oakland's betting odds are still reasonable due to the pitching matchup. The Rangers start Kyle Gibson, who has a 2.09 ERA and 3.11 xERA, opposite Frankie Montas, who has a 4.21 ERA and a 4.14 xERA.
The Rangers may have a slim edge in the starting pitching matchup but the As have a major edge in the bullpen with a 3.86 ERA compared to a 4.63 ERA for Texas. The As have also faired much better offensively this season, averaging 4.56 runs per game compared to 3.94 for the Rangers.
Our model gives the As a 58.93% likelihood to cover the runline of 1.5 and we like this as a 2-star betting opportunity for Monday night.
San Diego Padres -1.5 (+172): 1 Star out of 5
The San Diego Padres have a favorable pitching matchup in this game that could be enough to carry them to a big win. Yu Darvish takes the hill for San Diego and he boasts a 2.57 ERA and 2.78 xERA this season. The Padres have won 11 out of Darvish’s 14 starts this year and 8 of those victories have come by 2 runs or more.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have Julio Urias starting and he has been good this season with a 3.54 ERA and 3.57 xERA but he is not quite on the same level as Darvish. The Padres certainly have the advantage in this game in terms of the starting pitching matchup.
Our model believes that this starting pitching discrepancy is enough to make the Padres at -1.5 a 1-star bet, giving it a 54.25% likelihood.