MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 6/28/21
Which MLB games offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 (-172): 3 Stars out of 5
Tyler Anderson takes the mound for the Pittsburgh Pirates and he should give them a good chance to win this matchup. Anderson has a mediocre 4.82 ERA and only slightly better xERA at 4.42 but he matches up well against Kyle Freeland, who has a 7.76 ERA and 6.66 xERA in 6 starts this season.
Freeland has yet to find his groove this season and our model likes the Pirates to take advantage, giving them a 72.07% likelihood to cover the runline of +1.5.
Los Angeles Angels +1.5 (-137): 1 Star out of 5
The Los Angeles Angels are 3 games behind the New York Yankees in the standings but they have produced much better than the Bronx Bombers offensively so far this year. The Angels are averaging 4.83 runs per game compared to only 3.99 runs per game for the Yankees.
The Angels start Dylan Bundy, who has a poor ERA at 6.68 but his xERA is 4.54, meaning he should expect to get much better results if he continues to pitch at his current level. Bundy pitched to a 3.29 ERA and finished 9th in the AL Cy Young voting last season so it is certainly reasonable to expect him to improve.
The Yankees start Michael King, who has a 4.05 ERA and 5.09 xERA, so although his true ERA is better than Bundy’s his xERA is actually worse. Our model likes the pitching matchup and likes the Angels to cover, giving them a 61.23% chance to do so.
San Francisco Giants +1.5 (-134): 1 Star out of 5
Anthony DeSclafani takes the mound for San Francisco Giants and he has been one of the many bright spots for the Giants this season. DeSclafani has a 2.77 ERA and xERA of 3.36 and he faces Trevor Bauer, who has very similar numbers with a 2.57 ERA and 3.24 xERA.
The Los Angeles Dodgers and Giants are also almost even offensively, with the Dodgers averaging 5.08 runs per game and the Giants averaging 4.96 runs per game. Our model agrees that this is an even matchup, giving the Dodgers a 56.3% win probability but we like the Giants runline at +1.5 as a 1-star bet and give it a 61.23% likelihood.