MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 6/30/21
Which MLB games offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 (+100): 2 Stars out of 5
The Arizona Diamondbacks are in the midst of a terrible season at 22-59 this year, but they are still a better offensive team than the St. Louis Cardinals. Arizona is averaging 4.17 runs per game compared to just 3.90 for the Cardinals, who rank 26th in the league in runs per game.
The Cardinals do have the advantage in the pitching matchup, but it is only a slight one. They start Kwang-Hyun Kim, who has a 3.98 ERA and 4.30 xERA. Kim faces Riley Smith, who has just a 5.71 ERA and 5.43 xERA.
Our model likes the Diamondbacks at +1.5, giving them a 59.45% likelihood to cover.
Los Angeles Angels +1.5 (-162): 1 Star out of 5
The Los Angeles Angels start Shohei Ohtani, who is the leading MVP candidate in the AL this season. Ohtani’s pitching has been overshadowed by his offense, but he is having a fantastic pitching season, as well, throwing to a 2.58 ERA and 3.64 xERA over 11 starts.
The New York Yankees start Domingo German, who has a 4.32 ERA and 4.22 xERA, so the Angels have the clear advantage in the starting pitching matchup. The Angels are also a better offensive team than the Yankees so far in 2021, averaging 4.84 runs per game compared to just 4.06 runs per game for the Yankees.
Our model gives the Angels a 64.56% chance to cover the runline of 1.5, and we like this as a one-star bet.
Detroit Tigers +1.5 (-115): 1 Star out of 5
The Detroit Tigers are 11.5 games behind the Cleveland Indians, but they should have a good chance in this game against Logan Allen. Allen is having a rough season, as he has a 9.19 ERA and 7.99 xERA in five starts this season. Allen has struggled throughout his career, too, with a 6.50 ERA and 6.52 FIP in 54 career innings.
The Tigers start Wily Peralta, who has an ERA of 5.00 in just nine innings this season. Peralta has a track record as a decent big league arm, though, throwing 788.1 career innings with a 4.52 ERA and 4.54 FIP.
The Indians are clearly the better team, but the Tigers have the advantage in this matchup. Our model gives them a 57.13% chance to cover the runline of +1.5.