4 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for Wednesday 6/30/21

Max Fried has a favorable matchup tonight and is worth including in lineups. Which other value plays should we consider?

With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.

An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-salaried slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-salaried NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.

That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-salaried play completely is somewhat unique.

Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's nine-game main slate.

Max Fried, SP, Atlanta Braves ($8,100)

Tonight's nine-game main slate actually has a number of rock-solid options at the top of the pitcher pool, but if you're looking to save some cap for the top offenses, Max Fried should certainly be on your radar.

Fried's 2021 campaign has produced middling numbers thus far. Through 57.2 innings, the lefty sports a 4.21 ERA, which is backed up by a 4.04 xFIP and 4.20 SIERA. Fried's 22.2% strikeout rate is nothing to write home about, either. All that said, there is reason for optimism tonight. The 27-year-old has accrued at least 34 FanDuel points in four of his last six starts, and that includes a 43-point performance against tonight's opponent, the New York Mets.

The Mets have had their struggles against southpaws this season, as their 90 wRC+ and 24.8% strikeout rate in that split both rank ninth-worst in the majors. The last two weeks have been a monumental struggle offensively for New York, as their 70 wRC+ during that stretch is tied for dead last and their 26.1% K rate is fourth-worst.

There are worse flyers you can take than rostering Fried tonight.

Randal Grichuk, OF, Toronto Blue Jays ($2,700)

According to numberFire's Matchup Heat Map, the Toronto Blue Jays' 6.35 implied run total is the highest on tonight's slate. Toeing the rubber against Toronto will be Seattle Mariners southpaw Justus Sheffield.

On the season, Sheffield has been battered to the tune of a 5.69 ERA, 5.50 FIP, and 6.31 xERA. Hitters have mashed 1.72 dongs per nine frames against him, and when we isolate it to just righties, that number jumps to 1.93. In fact, opposite-handed hitters have managed a .308 average, .386 wOBA, and .903 OPS against Sheffield this season.

While there are plenty of options to include in a Blue Jays stack, Randal Grichuk could provide excellent value. In 136 plate appearances versus left-handed hurlers since 2020, Grichuk has racked up a .313 average, .911 OPS, .260 ISO, and 143 wRC+, according to FanGraphs. That'll play.

Hunter Renfroe, OF, Boston Red Sox ($3,200)

A salary of $3,200 is a big high to be considered a "value", but Hunter Renfroe is in a good enough spot to justify this billing.

The Boston Red Sox will be squaring off against Kansas City Royals lefty Mike Minor. Since 2020, right-handed hitters have tagged Minor for a 5.67 ERA and 1.7 dongs per nine innings.

What Renfroe has done against lefties is nothing short of amazing and makes him a worthy inclusion in any Boston stacks or as a standalone option tonight. For his career, the 29-year-old has a .936 OPS, .310 ISO, and 144 wRC+ with the platoon advantage. That includes a whopping 41 round-trippers in 503 at-bats.

Abraham Toro, 3B, Houston Astros ($2,800)

The Houston Astros might just have the matchup of the day against Matt Harvey and the Baltimore Orioles.

In 2021, Harvey has a 7.54 ERA, and though his peripherals are better than that, it's unlikely that he'll see correction against this Houston lineup. Lefties, in particular, have absolutely gone to town against Harvey in recent years. Since 2017, the 32-year-old has posted a 7.06 ERA and a 16.7% strikeout rate versus hitters that bat from the left side of the plate. Oh, and he's surrendered 2.1 HR/9 in that split. Yikes.

Houston doesn't have many economical plays, though switch-hitting Abraham Toro might be an exception. In 11 games since getting recalled from the minors, Toro has accrued a .372 on-base percentage, 2 long balls, and 13 RBI.