MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 7/8/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Under 9.0 (-106): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Duffy is having a nice season for the Kansas City Royals. Through 52 innings, he's spun a 4.01 SIERA, 26.3% strikeout rate and 14.2% swinging-strike rate. He's been excellent away from home, too, posting a 28.9% strikeout rate in the split while limiting hitters to a .268 wOBA. Up against a Cleveland Indians offense that is 24th in wOBA (.299), Duffy should have a good night.
For Cleveland, Plesac is making his first start off the injured list. While he struggled to a 4.50 SIERA in 58 2/3 innings this season prior to getting hurt, Plesac had a much better 3.41 SIERA in 2020 in nearly the same sample size (55 1/3 innings). The Royals are a pretty friendly matchup as they sit 22nd in wOBA (.303).
All in all, we expect both offenses to have a tough time in this one. We project Cleveland to win 4.25-3.98, and we think the under wins out 52.8% of the time.
Over 8.0 (-118): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Our model likes the total in this game, as well, but we're backing the over this time.
Houser hasn't been anything special in 2021, sporting a 4.35 SIERA with an 18.7% strikeout rate and 7.2% swinging-strike rate. He's permitted 10 earned runs over his past three outings (17 2/3 innings) and has worked more than five innings just four times in his last nine starts.
Mahle has been much better than Houser. The Reds' righty boasts a 3.52 SIERA and 29.9% strikeout rate. But he's allowing a decent amount of hard contact (35.1% hard-hit rate), leading to 1.21 dingers per nine. That has really been an issue of late as he's surrendered four jacks in his last three appearances, which covers a span of just 15 innings.
Our model has Cincy winning 4.96-4.32 for a total of 9.28 runs. We give the over 57.0% odds of hitting.