MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 7/8/21

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.

For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians

Under 9.0 (-106): 2-Star Rating Out of 5

The pitching matchup in this one pits Danny Duffy versus Zach Plesac, and our model points to the under.

Duffy is having a nice season for the Kansas City Royals. Through 52 innings, he's spun a 4.01 SIERA, 26.3% strikeout rate and 14.2% swinging-strike rate. He's been excellent away from home, too, posting a 28.9% strikeout rate in the split while limiting hitters to a .268 wOBA. Up against a Cleveland Indians offense that is 24th in wOBA (.299), Duffy should have a good night.

For Cleveland, Plesac is making his first start off the injured list. While he struggled to a 4.50 SIERA in 58 2/3 innings this season prior to getting hurt, Plesac had a much better 3.41 SIERA in 2020 in nearly the same sample size (55 1/3 innings). The Royals are a pretty friendly matchup as they sit 22nd in wOBA (.303).

All in all, we expect both offenses to have a tough time in this one. We project Cleveland to win 4.25-3.98, and we think the under wins out 52.8% of the time.

Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers

Over 8.0 (-118): 2-Star Rating Out of 5

Our model likes the total in this game, as well, but we're backing the over this time.

Tyler Mahle and Adrian Houser are the probable starters for the Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers, respectively, and the total is set at a lowly 8.0 runs.

Houser hasn't been anything special in 2021, sporting a 4.35 SIERA with an 18.7% strikeout rate and 7.2% swinging-strike rate. He's permitted 10 earned runs over his past three outings (17 2/3 innings) and has worked more than five innings just four times in his last nine starts.

Mahle has been much better than Houser. The Reds' righty boasts a 3.52 SIERA and 29.9% strikeout rate. But he's allowing a decent amount of hard contact (35.1% hard-hit rate), leading to 1.21 dingers per nine. That has really been an issue of late as he's surrendered four jacks in his last three appearances, which covers a span of just 15 innings.

Our model has Cincy winning 4.96-4.32 for a total of 9.28 runs. We give the over 57.0% odds of hitting.