MLB Betting Guide: Monday 7/19/21
Which MLB games offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Toronto Blue Jays -134: 1 Star out of 5
The Blue Jays are third in MLB in runs per game with 5.21, while the Red Sox are slightly behind at 5.00 runs per game. Nick Pivetta takes the mound for the Red Sox (4.30 ERA/4.06 xERA) while Ross Stripling takes the mound for the Blue Jays (4.34 ERA/4.50 xERA).
The Blue Jays also have a superior run differential to Boston, as they are +95 compared to Boston’s +51. Toronto may be a better team than their first-half record indicates and our model likes their chances tonight, giving them a 58.23% chance to win outright.
Cleveland Indians +1.5 (-104): 1 Star out of 5
The starting pitching matchup in this game appears to be a mismatch with Zack Greinke (3.59 ERA) going against Jean Carlos Mejia (7.42 ERA). xERA does help close the gap, as Greinke’s is 4.15 and Mejia’s is 5.47, but there is still clearly an advantage for the Astros here.
The Cleveland Indians do take back some of this advantage through the bullpen, as their bullpen has an AL-leading 3.33 ERA, while the Houston Astros bullpen has a 4.15 ERA. Overall, Cleveland is a strong pitching team and they should be able to keep this game close, if not win outright.
Our model gives Cleveland a 51.19% chance to cover the runline of +1.5, making this another 1-Star betting opportunity for Monday.
Oakland Athletics -108: 1 Star out of 5
The Los Angeles Angels have a slight advantage in the pitching matchup as they start Shohei Ohtani against Cole Irvin of the Oakland Athletics. Ohtani has 3.49 ERA and 3.70 xERA as he continues his historic season, but Cole Irvin of the A’s is close to keeping pace with a 3.65 ERA and 4.63 xERA.
The A’s enjoy a major advantage out of the bullpen, as their bullpen ERA is 3.90 compared to 4.73 for the Angels. The A’s also have home field advantage, giving them another edge, as they have a 28-24 home record compared to a 19-24 away record for Los Angeles.
Our model gives the A’s a 54.63% chance to win the game outright.