FanDuel Pitching Primer: Tuesday 7/20/21
In daily fantasy baseball, success starts with nailing the starting pitcher spot in your lineup.
When compared to hitters, pitching performance tends to be much more predictable and stable throughout the course of the season. You know what you're getting from a top-level ace when you roster him: probably a dominant effort with only one or two implosions per season. In contrast, even the game's best hitters have days at the plate when they go 0-for-4.
As a result, lineup construction should begin with the starting pitcher. Which pitchers should you consider on today's main slate?
High-Salaried Play
Luis Garcia, Houston Astros
Vs. Cleveland Indians
FanDuel Salary: $9,600
Tonight is a very interesting main slate -- Yu Darvish and Aaron Nola return from injury, and when I spend up, I need a little bit more of a security blanket than those two can offer.
Some folks could pivot to Trevor Rogers of the Miami Marlins -- but with the Washington Nationals turning into the New York Yankees of the 1920s, I am a bit frightened for that proposition.
I'm betting on Luis Garcia of the Houston Astros at the top of the pool -- he's blessed with an amazing matchup against a bad Cleveland Indians team, and he's been filthy with a 28.0% strikeout rate.
The Indians clock in with a .303 wOBA and 88 wRC+, and their strikeout rate (23.5%) is elevated as well. He's my pick at the top.
Mid-Salaried Play
German Marquez, Colorado Rockies
Vs. Seattle Mariners
FanDuel Salary: $8,600
This may be my favorite pitching matchup of the day.
The Colorado Rockies host the Seattle Mariners tonight, and that's always a bit scary -- until you realize what kind of a boss that German Marquez has been. On the season, he's logged a 3.27 FIP while sporting a 25.0% strikeout rate.
And the Mariners still lag way behind -- their offense is second-worst in terms of team wOBA (.296), and their 26.3% strikeout upside is a mark we so desperately want to target.
Low-Salaried Play
Triston McKenzie, Cleveland Indians
At Houston Astros
FanDuel Salary: $6,900
Oh baby, let's buckle in here.
Triston McKenzie faces a Houston Astros team that has been one of the hardest to whiff in all of baseball -- for the season, they've recorded a stellar mark of 18.9%. So why target them?
The issue is that they've actually been striking out quite a bit lately. With some banged-up pieces in the lineup, they struck out 11 times yesterday, and Sunday wasn't a whole lot better with 13 whiffs. In fact, Houston's 74 wRC+ and 24.9% strikeout rate in July ranks second- and eighth-worst in the majors, according to FanGraphs.
McKenzie was on point in his last start, firing seven scoreless innings with nine strikeouts while surrendering just one hit and one walk. The bottom of the barrel is always a bit scary, but McKenzie does provide some potential upside.
Matt Kupferle is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Matt Kupferle also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username MKupferle. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
