MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 7/21/21
Which MLB games offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
San Francisco +1.5 (-146): 1 Star out of 5
This should be an entertaining matchup between two of the best teams in baseball. The San Francisco Giants currently lead the Los Angeles Dodgers by one game in the standings and these are the top two teams in the league in terms of winning percentage.
Both offenses have been superb this season, the Dodgers are averaging 5.31 runs per game (2nd in MLB) and the Giants are averaging 4.93 runs per game (6th in MLB).
The pitching matchup is even, with Julio Urias posting a 3.78 ERA and 3.87 xERA compared to a 3.54 ERA and 3.45 xERA for Logan Webb of the Giants. The Giants might see a slight edge here in starting pitching and our model likes their chance to cover the runline of 1.5, giving it a 62.83% likelihood.
St. Louis -1.5 (+162): 1 Star out of 5
The Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals are both on the fringe of the playoff race, so this is a critical game for both teams. Both teams have been let down by their offense, with the Cubs averaging just 4.22 runs per game and the Cardinals averaging an even lower 3.99 runs per game.
The Cubs start Kyle Hendricks, who is having a down year by his standards and has posted a decent 3.65 ERA but a poor xERA at 4.76. He faces Adam Wainwright, who has a 3.71 ERA and 4.21 xERA, so while his ERA is worse than Hendrick’s the predictive stats say he has a more likely chance to pitch better going forward.
Our model gives the Cardinals a 38.87% chance to cover the runline of 1.5 which provides some returns given the high odds of +162.
Chicago White Sox -1.5 (+128): 2 Stars out of 5
The Chicago White Sox have the 4th best offense in baseball this season in terms of runs per game, averaging 5.13 on the season. The Minnesota Twins have performed well offensively too, averaging 4.59, but the White Sox still clearly have an advantage here.
The starting pitching matchup in this game is interesting, as Michael Pineda and Dylan Cease are almost even in ERA, 4.11 for Pineda and 4.15 for Cease, but there is a major gap in their xERA.Cease has an xERA of 3.98 compared to 5.16 for Pineda, so xERA indicates that Pineda may be lucky to have an ERA in the low 4s.
Our model likes the White Sox to cover the runline of -1.5, giving them a 49.70% chance to do so. This makes this a 2-Star betting opportunity based on the odds of +128.