3 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for Thursday 7/22/21
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-salaried slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-salaried NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-salaried play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's eight-game main slate.
Blake Snell, SP, San Diego Padres
FanDuel Salary: $7,500
It has been far from a banner year for Blake Snell, to say the least.
Through 74 1/3 innings in his first stint with the San Diego Padres, Snell has racked up a 5.21 ERA and an ugly 14.1% walk rate. However, his underlying numbers aren't all bad. The former Cy Young winner has a 4.06 xFIP and 28.2% strikeout rate. While both of those marks would be his worst since 2017, it should still be good enough to take advantage of a matchup like the one he has tonight.
Snell and the Friars get a tasty draw in the Miami Marlins. On the season, Miami's 85 wRC+ against southpaws ranks second-worst in the league, and their 27.9% K rate in that split is dead last, according to FanGraphs. The Marlins have also struck out at the second-highest rate in the month of July.
Snell has eclipsed 50 FanDuel points twice in his last nine starts, and he has a chance to do so again tonight.
Bobby Dalbec, 1B/3B, Boston Red Sox
FanDuel Salary: $2,300
According to numberFire's Matchup Heatmap, the highest implied run total of the slate currently belongs to the Boston Red Sox, who are sitting at 5.07.
Boston will be squaring off against New York Yankees southpaw Jordan Montgomery. Montgomery's actually been solid this year, garnering a 4.18 ERA, 4.10 xFIP, 4.07 SIERA, and 24.1% punch-out rate. That said, the 28-year-old has pretty generous to right-handed hitters in 2021, posting a 4.40 xFIP, 1.34 WHIP, and 1.21 homers per nine frames.
That brings us to Bobby Dalbec. In 128 career plate appearances versus opposite-handed pitchers, Dalbec has accrued a .276 average, .858 OPS, .285 ISO, .357 wOBA, and 124 wRC+. That'll play.
Mitch Garver, C, Minnesota Twins
FanDuel Salary: $2,400
Los Angeles Angels lefty Andrew Heaney has some pretty good peripherals, but his real-life numbers have not matched up at all.
While Heaney's xFIP and SIERA sit at 3.83 and 3.71, respectively, his ERA is at a sky-high 5.56, and the production he's allowed to opposite-handed hitters haven't helped his case much. Righties have pummeled the 30-year-old for a .781 OPS, .337 wOBA, and 1.99 dongs per nine innings. Not great.
The Minnesota Twins are loaded with power bats who can take advantage of this matchup, but Mitch Garver stands out as a top value play. In 222 trips to the plate against lefties since 2019, Garver has amassed a .274 average, .990 OPS, .342 ISO, .407 wOBA, and 159 wRC+. Those are some pretty damn good numbers. Sign me up.
