3 Under-the-Radar MLB FanDuel Plays for Monday 7/26/21
When being contrarian in daily fantasy sports, there's a fine line between taking a calculated risk and being reckless. But differentiating your lineups from everyone else's is the name of the game if you plan on taking down one of those highly lucrative DFS tournaments. Whether it's because of bookmaker totals, other options at a given position, or some gem you've found who everyone is overlooking, we can always find potential under-rostered plays if we look hard enough.
Here are three such players to consider branching out for on FanDuel's main slate.
Dallas Keuchel, P, Chicago White Sox ($7,200)
There are a few clear pitching options in the top-tier tonight, which should cause most other pitchers to be overlooked.
Even though Dallas Keuchel isn't a big strikeout pitcher, he is worth a shot in tournaments tonight. Keuchel is carrying a low 14.6% strikeout rate and often only finishes a game with four or five strikeouts. However, he has a very strong 55.3% ground-ball rate and a 49.6% medium-contact rate. This allows him to limit the damage, and that is shown by the fact he has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 8 of his last 10 starts.
Keuchel will be up against the Kansas City Royals, who come in with a 94 wRC+ (21st in the league), .161 ISO (19th), and 45.5% ground-ball rate (8th) versus left-handed pitchers this year. The Royals produce too many ground balls, which is exactly what Keuchel excels at. He should be able to move through the game with few issues against this Royals' lineup.
Robbie Grossman, OF, Detroit Tigers ($3,400)
Michael Pineda isn't a good pitcher, and you should look to attack him tonight.
The Detroit Tigers come in with a 4.53 implied run total, and that is selling them a bit short. The Tigers have won 7 of their last 10 games and are looking good on this side of the All-Star break, something we haven't been able to say about them in a few years. That success should continue tonight versus Pineda, who is allowing 2.03 HR/9 to lefties with a 4.77 xFIP and 48.4% fly-ball rate.
This is where I'll turn to Robbie Grossman, who has a .157 ISO, 100 wRC+, 48.0% fly-ball rate, and 31.0% hard-contact rate. That 48% fly-ball rate always gives Grossman a bit of upside and makes him a threat for a home run in this matchup.
Josh Bell, 1B, Washington Nationals ($3,400)
The Washington Nationals have a 4.63 implied run total tonight, and that isn't high enough.
That implied total has the Nationals sitting as the seventh-highest team on the slate, putting them in a spot to go overlooked tonight. That should make them a good tournament option, as they are primed for a big game against Spencer Howard from the Philadelphia Phillies. This season, Howard has only pitched 24.2 innings and has yet to allow a home run to a left-handed hitter, and if you've been reading this article through the year, you should already know what I'm going to say. This isn't going to stay this way forever.
Howard is allowing a terrible 48.3% fly-ball rate to left-handed hitters with a 26.7% hard-contact rate. The league average for hard-contact rate allowed to lefties this season is 32.0%. We should see Howard hit with some negative regression when it comes to hard-contact rate, and when combined with all the fly balls allowed, that means he is due to give up some home runs.
Josh Bell comes in with a .193 ISO, 37.9% hard-contact rate, and 24.4% HR/FB rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. Bell has all the power you could possibly want, and in a hitter's park such as Philadelphia, he is in a great spot.
