MLB

3 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for Thursday 7/29/21

Elisha Twerski  —  @ElishaTwerski Jul 29th, 2021
Miguel Cabrera draws an excellent matchup tonight. Which other lower-salaried players should we target on Thursday?

With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.

An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-salaried slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-salaried NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.

That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-salaried play completely is somewhat unique.

Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's tiny four-game main slate.

Casey Mize, SP, Detroit Tigers

FanDuel Salary: $6,900

Tonight's main slate will have a total of eight starting pitchers, so it's not as if you'll have a plethora of options to choose from. If you don't want to pay up for one of the six hurlers with salaries between $8,200 and $9,700, Casey Mize might just be your best bet for value.

The Detroit Tigers' right-hander has had a solid, yet unspectacular season. Mize's 3.63 ERA is dampened a bit by his 4.19 xFIP and 4.25 SIERA, and for today, we'll ignore his 4.86 xERA. The 24-year-old has also posted a mediocre 20.2% strikeout rate.

All that said, it's the matchup that makes Mize an intriguing option tonight. On the season, the Baltimore Orioles have garnered a wRC+ of 86 and a 25.0% punchout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which rank third-worst and ninth-worst, respectively, in all of baseball.

Pitch count has been a major issue for Mize, as he's topped out at 79 in his last four starts. However, if he is allowed to go deeper into the game, this is the kind of matchup where he can feast.

Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers

FanDuel Salary: $2,500

Sometimes, the old ways are as good as the new ones, and turning to Miguel Cabrera tonight could be a smart strategy.

The O's will have rookie southpaw Alexander Wells on the bump, and that's why the Tigers currently have the slate's highest implied total, per numberFire's Matchup Heat Map.

Wells has just 10 1/3 big league innings to his name for his career, but his 5.77 xFIP is not far off from the 4.82 clip he posted in 43 Triple-A innings this season. The 24-year-old also ceded 1.26 homers per nine innings in Triple-A, and he's allowed two round-trippers in the bigs so far.

Meanwhile, Miggy has pelted lefty pitchers his entire career, and recent years have been no different. Since 2019, the future Hall of Famer has amassed a .332 average, .900 OPS, .385 wOBA, and 143 wRC+ against opposite-handed pitching.

Wil Myers, OF, San Diego Padres

FanDuel Salary: $2,500

The San Diego Padres will square off against Colorado Rockies lefty Kyle Freeland, which makes them an excellent stacking option.

Freeland has been equally as generous to hitters from both sides of the plate. In 230 2/3 innings since 2019, the 28-year-old has accrued a 5.54 ERA, 5.43 FIP, and a mere 16.4% strikeout rate. During that stretch, hitters have tagged him for a .290 average, .856 OPS, .360 wOBA, and 1.8 dingers per nine frames.

A key to a Friars stack should be Wil Myers, who has feasted with the platoon advantage. Since 2019, Myers has put up a .856 OPS, .245 ISO, .361 wOBA, and 127 wRC+ against lefties.