MLB Betting Guide: Monday 8/9/21
Which MLB games offer betting value on Soccer odd? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Indians
Under 9.5 Runs (-112): 2 Stars out of 5
The Cincinnati Reds start Luis Castillo today, and following a slow start to the year, he's improved to an xERA of 3.88 and an actual ERA of 4.09. Castillo has been amazing since the start of June, posting a 1.71 ERA in June, a 2.15 ERA in July, and then a 1.50 ERA in August thus far.
Castillo will look to continue his hot streak and shut down the Cleveland Indians on Monday night.
The Indians start Sam Hentges, who has a 7.86 ERA for the season but has thrown two scoreless innings in two relief appearances this month. The Indians also have the fourth-best bullpen ERA in MLB, and they likely will not ask Hentges for much length, so this game should be low scoring.
Our model projects a 58.04% chance at the under hitting, making this a two-star bet.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs
Under 9.0 (-115): 1 Star out of 5
Freddy Peralta starts this game for Milwaukee Brewers and he is a legitimate Cy Young contender with an xERA of 2.48 and an actual ERA of 2.21 in 114 innings. He opposes Alec Mills of the Chicago Cubs, who is having a decent year with an xERA of 4.46.
Neither of these teams are prolific offensively, as the Brewers average 4.52 runs per game (15th in MLB) and the Cubs average 4.19 (21st). Our model projects another low-scoring game, projecting 8.64 total runs in the contest.
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins
Minnesota Twins +1.5 (+105): 2 Stars out of 5
The Chicago White Sox start Lucas Giolito in this game, and while he is having a strong season with an xERA of 3.30, he has not been a complete shutdown ace in every start. Giolito is giving up 1.4 home runs per nine innings and he gave up three homers and six runs in his last start against Kansas City.
The Minnesota Twins are starting Beau Burrows, who is mostly an unknown and has thrown only 15.2 MLB innings. The Twins will be relying on their offense to provide some run support, and they average 4.63 runs per game, which should be enough to keep this game close.
Our model gives the Twins a 57.15% chance to cover the runline of 1.5, and we like this as a two-star betting opportunity.
