3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Friday 8/13/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Franmil Reyes To Hit a Home Run (+280)
Sometimes a matchup makes too much sense to pass up.
That is what we have with Franmil Reyes taking on Tyler Alexander tonight, and hopefully, it leads to a home run. Reyes is a big-time power hitter with a .239 ISO, 37.7% fly-ball rate, 39.3% hard-contact rate, and 21.7% HR/FB rate versus left-handed pitchers this season. He swings big, he gets the ball in the air, and he hits home runs -- it's that simple. This puts him in a spot to hit a home run in most matchups, which is what we should see tonight.
Alexander comes into this game allowing 1.74 HR/9 with a 47.5% fly-ball rate and 42.6% hard-contact rate to right-handed hitters, all of which are terrible numbers. Alexander has allowed a total of 29 home runs this season, 24 of which have come via right-handed hitters, so he has a clear weakness against them. If there was any time to buy in on the Cleveland Indians' righty hitters it's tonight.
Max Muncy To Hit a Home Run (+290)
The Los Angeles Dodgers have plenty of power in the lineup, and that should be on full display tonight.
Although the Dodgers are on the road to take on the New York Mets -- which is a solid pitcher's park -- we can still be looking here for some home runs. Tylor Megill will be on the mound for the Mets, and his splits versus left-handed hitters this season are horrible. He is allowing 2.50 HR/9 versus lefties compared to 0.67 HR/9 to righties. Also, his 55.4% fly-ball rate versus lefties puts him at risk to give up home runs no matter what park he is pitching in.
That means we want a lefty power hitter from the Dodgers, and that leads us to Max Muncy, who comes in with a .270 ISO, 148 wRC+, 38.4% fly-ball rate, and 39.5% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. The Dodgers having a 4.62 implied run total tonight is no mistake, and given what their offense is capable of, that could be too low.
Jesus Luzardo Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-102)
The Chicago Cubs aren't a good team, and they strike out too much. Sorry, Cubs fans.
That's the truth when it comes to the Cubs' current roster, which has a 26.2% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is dead last in the league. After a number of trades, the Cubs are rolling out what is nearly a Triple-A lineup, and they are highly undisciplined at the plate.
Jesus Luzardo comes in with a 21.5% strikeout rate overall this season, but he flashed a 28% strikeout rate or higher in several starts this season. Luzardo's strikeout upside is much higher than what his season-long numbers are showing this year. I love the matchup versus the Cubs and love that the prop is only at 5.5 strikeouts tonight.
