FanDuel Pitching Primer: Tuesday 8/17/21
In daily fantasy baseball, success starts with nailing the starting pitcher spot in your lineup.
When compared to hitters, pitching performance tends to be much more predictable and stable throughout the course of the season. You know what you're getting from a top-level ace when you roster him: probably a dominant effort with only one or two implosions per season. In contrast, even the game's best hitters have days at the plate when they go 0-for-4.
As a result, lineup construction should begin with the starting pitcher. Which pitchers should you consider on today's main slate?
High-Salaried Play
Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers
At St. Louis Cardinals
FanDuel Salary: $11,500
Mark it down, Corbin Burnes of the Milwaukee Brewers is the top play today, and it's not close.
Look, the St. Louis Cardinals offense is bad. Really bad. They are one of the worst in the league, and they've actually increased their strikeout rate over the last 30 days with a 23.4% whiff rate. On the season, the Cardinals' 88 wRC+ against right-handed pitching is tied for the eighth-worst mark in all of baseball, per FanGraphs.
Burnes needs zero help in that regard -- he's logged a 36.5% strikeout rate this season, and there's a reason this game has a minuscule over/under of 7.5 runs. In fact, at 3.14, St. Louis has the lowest implied run total, according to numberFire's Matchup Heat Map. We have Burnes projected as the top score of the day and for good reason.
Mid-Salaried Play
Kyle Gibson, Philadelphia Phillies
At Arizona Diamondbacks
FanDuel Salary: $8,900
The Arizona Diamondbacks, Kyle Gibson's opponent tonight, have shown some intriguing improvement. Over the last month, they've logged a respectable .320 wOBA mark, which could scare some suitors.
But, there's plenty of reasons to buy into Gibson, too. They are still striking out at a solid clip (24.0%), and their .157 isolated power (ISO) isn't overly terrifying.
Gibson has had an outstanding 2021 season -- 2.91 ERA and 3.86 FIP -- due in part to a gorgeous 51.1% ground-ball rate, and that makes him a solid mid-range play tonight.
Low-Salaried Play
Bailey Ober, Minnesota Twins
Vs. Cleveland Indians
FanDuel Salary: $7,200
Let's do this again -- for all the same reason that Griffin Jax of the Minnesota Twins made sense on Monday, it also makes a lot of sense to ride with Bailey Ober on Tuesday.
The Cleveland Indians, Ober's opponent, have been on the struggle bus at the dish lately. They've logged a 23.3% strikeout rate and .309 wOBA in the last month. Yuck.
Ober has shown some very real strikeout upside so far this season -- his 25.5% strikeout rate is more than solid, and his 6.6% walk rate shows that his control and command is solid as well. If you need a cheaper option than Gibson and Burnes, peep Ober.
Matt Kupferle is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Matt Kupferle also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username MKupferle. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
