FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Wednesday 8/18/21
Wednesday's main slate checks in at 10 games, and you can arguably make a case for rostering any of the top-five pitchers in salary tonight. On the hitting side, six teams crack five-run implied totals, with the Tampa Bay Rays leading the way.
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Let's check out the top options on tonight's main slate.
Pitchers
Charlie Morton ($9,200): We have a pretty tight group of quality pitchers to choose between at the top of the salary list, but Morton gets perhaps the best matchup against the Marlins. Miami's active roster owns an 84 wRC+ and 24.4% strikeout rate versus righties, and they also have one of the slate's lowest implied totals (3.28).
Morton's 28.0% strikeout rate is one of the better marks on the board, and a healthy 48.2% ground-ball rate limits home runs, something he's done throughout his career. And while Morton doesn't always get the highest pitch counts, it hasn't stopped him from logging quality starts in 9 of his last 11 appearances. While no pitcher is ever truly "safe," he's probably the closest thing to that on tonight's slate.
Freddy Peralta ($9,800): Peralta leads the slate with a 34.5% strikeout rate, though the caveat is that it comes with a 10.9% walk rate. St. Louis isn't a great opponent for strikeouts (22.0% versus righties), but they also aren't particularly dangerous (90 wRC+ versus righties). Peralta is another guy who has a pitch count that usually tops out in the 90s, as he hasn't reached 100 since the beginning of June.
Despite having the edge over Morton in strikeouts, the opponent, walk rate, and slightly higher salary put Peralta behind Morton tonight, though it's close.
Shohei Ohtani ($10,500): In terms of underlying numbers and workload, Ohtani isn't all that different from Peralta from a season-long perspective, which includes a double-digit walk rate. However, since the beginning of June, Ohtani has dropped the free passes to 5.8% while still maintaining a solid 27.8% strikeout rate.
It's no secret that Detroit has played much better of late, but their active roster still only comes to a 90 wRC+ and 25.9% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching for the year. There could be some added punchout potential for Ohtani tonight.
Given you can grab other guys with similar upside at lower salaries, Ohtani probably isn't a must, but he's definitely worthy of being in your tournament mix.
Others to Consider: Jack Flaherty ($10,100), Lance Lynn ($9,500)
Stacks
Tampa Bay Rays: There's no question the Rays have one of the best matchups on the board, and perhaps it's the best one overall, too. Spenser Watkins has all the marks of someone we want to stack against, between a 5.47 SIERA, 14.6% strikeout rate, 8.9% walk rate, and 36.4% ground-ball rate.
The right-hander has poor numbers against lefties, which is no surprise, but he's actually proven to be even worse in same-sided matchups. Versus righties, Watkins has an egregious 6.03 xFIP and 11.8% strikeout rate while allowing a 44.1% fly-ball rate and 41.2% hard-hit rate. Maybe there's some small sample size noise in that split, but it sure makes rostering Nelson Cruz ($3,600) easy to like.
Otherwise, we can primarily build around the lefty sticks we should see high in the order through Brandon Lowe ($3,600), Austin Meadows ($3,200), Wander Franco ($3,400), and Ji-Man Choi ($2,500).
Boston Red Sox: We know the drill when it comes to Andrew Heaney. He gets loads of strikeouts but also gives up loads of home runs. He most recently got lit up by the White Sox for three home runs, and a couple of starts before that, he allowed four bombs to the Orioles.
Against right-handed hitters, the southpaw has an elite 30.3% strikeout rate, yet is coughing up dingers at a dizzying pace of 2.21 per nine innings.
Heaney's ability to get punchouts will lead to strong outings on occasion, but we'll gladly take that risk in tournaments, as it's clear that stacking the Red Sox has massive scoring potential.
J.D. Martinez ($4,000), Xander Bogaerts ($3,900), and Hunter Renfroe ($3,500) are obvious starting points, and Renfroe has even moved up to batting second against lefties lately. Enrique Hernandez ($3,700) is getting up there in salary, but you'll still want the leadoff man in lineups when possible.
Although Bobby Dalbec ($2,600) bats at the bottom of the order, he's one of the few low-salaried bats and boasts a 16.8% barrel rate when he connects, so you might consider him for wrap-around stacks with the big boppers up top.
It's also worth noting that while Heaney has performed better versus lefties, he actually only has a 21.3% strikeout rate and 37.6% ground-ball rate in the split, so you could still roll with the power bats of Rafael Devers ($4,200) and Kyle Schwarber ($3,500) to differentiate your lineups, too.
Seattle Mariners: The Mariners are usually pretty low on the stacking totem pole, but we have to consider just about any offense when they're facing Mike Foltynewicz. No one has allowed more home runs than Foltynewicz this year, giving up 33 at a rate of 2.40 per nine innings. For context, the aforementioned Heaney has allowed a total of 24 dingers in just two fewer starts.
The veteran right-hander has really struggled versus lefties, recording a 5.89 xFIP and 14.1% strikeout rate, and his minuscule 29.3% ground-ball rate has led to a 46.8% fly-ball rate. Kyle Seager ($3,300) is the big winner here (.222 ISO), and Abraham Toro ($2,700) and Jarred Kelenic ($2,400) will also benefit. J.P. Crawford ($2,700) has little power, but he's another lefty and is locked into the leadoff slot.
Of course, roughly half of those dingers have come off right-handed batters, too, Mitch Haniger ($3,400) is the other top power bat (.222 ISO) alongside Seager, and Ty France ($3,000) bats in the heart of the order.
Others to Consider: Philadelphia Phillies, Chicago White Sox, Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, Houston Astros