MLB Betting Guide: Monday 8/30/21
Which MLB games offer betting value on Soccer odd? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Texas Rangers +1.5 (-126): 1 Star out of 5
The Colorado Rockies continue to be abysmal away from home, going only 17-48 on the road this season. They face the Texas Rangers, who are 15 games behind Colorado in overall record, but Texas is 29-36 at home, so having home-field advantage should provide a huge boost.
The Rockies do have their ace German Marquez pitching, and he is having a good season with an xERA of 3.75. But the Rangers do counter with what could be a solid option of their own in A.J. Alexy. Alexy was having a great season in the minors, throwing to a 1.66 ERA in 65 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, so Rangers fans should be excited to see his MLB debut.
Our model projects Texas to have a 57.52% chance to cover the runline of 1.5, and we even give them a 45.9% chance to win outright.
San Diego Padres -1.5 (-102): 1 Star out of 5
The Arizona Diamondbacks may have an advantage in this starting pitching matchup with Tyler Gilbert facing Chris Paddack. Paddack has not had a great season this year with an xERA of 4.65, and Gilbert famously threw a no-hitter in his first MLB start earlier this year.
However, Gilbert has been much more human in his two starts since the no-hitter, throwing a combined 10 innings and giving up 6 runs to the Pittsburgh Pirates and Rockies. The Padres have produced better than Arizona offensively, too, averaging 4.61 runs per game compared to only 4.20 runs for Arizona.
Our model gives San Diego a 52.79% chance to cover, making this another one-star betting opportunity.
San Francisco Giants +1.5 (-140): 2 Stars out of 5
Corbin Burnes starts for the Milwaukee Brewers, and he is having a fantastic season with a 2.30 ERA and 1.94 xERA in 133 innings. He leads the league in HR/9, BB/9, and SO/9 and he is one of the frontrunners for the NL Cy Young. He faces Johnny Cueto, who recently came off the IL and has an xERA of 4.75 this season.
Despite the Brewers getting the better end of the pitching matchup, the San Francisco Giants should still have a good chance to win this game. San Francisco is the better offensive team (4.82 runs per game compared to 4.63 runs per game for Milwaukee), and they have the superior bullpen. The Giants rank third in MLB in bullpen ERA at 3.21, while the Brewers lag a bit behind with a 3.65 bullpen ERA.
San Francisco should at least be able to keep this game within one run, and we give them a 64.77% chance to cover the runline.