MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 9/1/21
Which MLB games offer betting value on Soccer odd? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Atlanta Braves +1.5 (-128): 1 Star out of 5
The Atlanta Braves have emerged as the new favorites in the NL East. After making several additions at the trade deadline, the Braves have caught fire, and they finished August with an 18-8 record.
The Braves do face a difficult opposing pitcher in Max Scherzer, but their starter Max Fried has an xERA of 3.70 this season, and he had a 1.36 ERA over 33 innings in August. Scherzer has an xERA of 3.07, so the game projects to be a good pitching duel.
Our model gives the Braves a 57.18% chance to cover the runline of 1.5, making this a one-star bet for Wednesday.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants
San Francisco Giants -1.5 (+128): 1 Star out of 5
The San Francisco Giants are tied with Tampa Bay for the best record in baseball, and this game is a potential playoff preview. The Giants are ahead of the Brewers in runs per game (4.77 vs. 4.62), and they have a huge advantage in the pitching matchup.
San Francisco starts Kevin Gausman, who has a 2.49 ERA and 3.46 xERA this season, and he faces Brett Anderson, who has a 4.27 ERA and 5.58 xERA. Both pitchers are slightly outperforming their xERA, but there is a clear advantage for the Giants in this starting pitching matchup.
Our model gives San Francisco a 47.08% chance to cover the runline, and given the plus odds, we have this as a one-star betting opportunity.
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay +1.5 (-166): 2 Stars out of 5
Tampa Bay and Boston have gone in different directions in the month of August. The Rays went 21-6 and have built a comfortable first-place lead, while Boston went 12-16, having their worst month of the season.
The pitching matchup features Chris Sale and Drew Rasmussen, neither of whom have pitched much this season. Sale has a 2.35 ERA but has only thrown 15 innings, while Rasmussen has a 3.09 ERA in 52 innings. The Rays have a major advantage if this becomes a bullpen game, as their bullpen has a 3.17 ERA this season compared to 4.00 for Boston.
The Red Sox also continue to miss multiple players due to Covid-19, with star shortstop Xander Bogaerts being the latest to test positive.
Our model gives the Rays a 68.91% chance to cover the runline of 1.5, and we like this as a two-star bet for Wednesday.
