4 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for Wednesday 9/1/21
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-salaried slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-salaried NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-salaried play completely is somewhat unique.
Max Fried, SP, Atlanta Braves
FanDuel Salary: $9,000
The value tier at pitcher on Wednesday's main slate is not for the squeamish, but with several high-salaried stacks like the Toronto Blue Jays facing Matt Harvey, or the Chicago White Sox facing Mitch Keller, spending down at pitcher in some tournament lineups may be a necessity.
Enter Max Fried of the Atlanta Braves, who provides an ace at a mid-range salary.
Fried has been remarkable since August 1st, well beyond just his 1.36 ERA. Fried's peripherals are equally strong with a 2.86 xFIP, and his batted ball data is sensational, only allowing a 24.1% flyball rate and a 26.1% hard-hit rate in that period of time. It's not just that Fried has gotten great results, but opponents are not even making contact that would imply any sort of success is coming.
The only issue here is the matchup, as the Los Angeles Dodgers remain a strong test for lefties with a 114 wRC+ in the month of August. However, with their current active roster striking out 22.5% of the time, there is still enough of a path to upside for Fried, and the Dodgers recently allowed Kyle Freeland of the Colorado Rockies to score 43 FanDuel points with 7 strikeouts, and Freeland's pitch mix is similar.
Robert Refsnyder, 2B, Minnesota Twins
FanDuel Salary: $2,100
The Minnesota Twins really have not proved to be a worthwhile stack against lefties despite their primarily right-handed lineup, as they just posted a 72 wRC+ and .116 ISO in August. However, with the fleeting Chicago Cubs in town, anything is possible.
Justin Steele has the bump for the Cubbies tonight, and Steele's 2021 profile in a limited 26.0 sample has not been bad. Steele has a 3.72 xFIP, but a majority of that has come as a reliever. Steele has a 4.94 xFIP as a starter, with a concerning 10.3% walk rate that is climbing. The Cubs' bullpen also struggled to a 4.49 xFIP in August, 11th-worst in MLB.
Robert Refsnyder is projected to bat third for the Twins amongst higher salary options like Josh Donaldson and Byron Buxton, but his presence is necessary to fit in Gerrit Cole or Max Scherzer. Refsnyder has been making excellent contact in his limited sample this year versus lefties, with a 50% hard-hit rate, but his .000 ISO against them shows that he has found far too many gloves. Expect that to change soon, and even perhaps in a favorable matchup tonight.
Tony Kemp, 2B/OF, Oakland Athletics
Jed Lowrie, 2B, Oakland Athletics
FanDuel Salary: $2,100, $2,500
With the Oakland Athletics top ten in the league in wRC+ and ISO against right-handed pitching, facing just an average one, it is strange to see their top-end stack so affordable to the point where it easily fits with Cole and Scherzer.
Tony Kemp and Jed Lowrie are the keys to that. Kemp is leading off versus righties right now for a reason, as Kemp has a .367 wOBA and a surprising .182 ISO since the start of August. Lowrie has been serviceable all year against righties with a .173 ISO himself, and his results should be better with an 88.3% medium-contact-or-better rate. The A's are a well-run team that capitalizes on their players' strengths, and while these two are not the biggest names, they are two of Oakland's best options versus righties at the moment.
The A's face Wily Peralta of the Detroit Tigers tonight. Peralta is typically a fool's errand to stack against with weaker offenses, as while his lack of strikeout upside is bad for daily fantasy as an option himself, his 54.5% groundball rate and 34.2% hard-hit rate rarely get him totally rocked. Oakland is not a weak offense, though, and his 4.74 xFIP shows regression is likely coming. The Athletics can always take advantage of the Tigers' bullpen as well, which is a bottom-ten unit in the league in xFIP (4.51) and hard-hit rate (33.4%).
Austin Swaim is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Austin Swaim also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username ASwaim3. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
