MLB Prop Bets to Target on Friday 9/10/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Marcus Semien To Hit a Home Run (+240)
The Toronto Blue Jays are going to hit multiple home runs tonight.
It's no secret that the Blue Jays have a ton of power in their lineup, and they are in a spot to flex that power tonight in Baltimore versus Chris Ellis. This is Ellis's first year in the MLB -- well, he technically pitched a single inning in 2019 but I'm not counting that -- and while it's a small, 16.2-inning sample size, it hasn't been a good start.
Ellis comes into this start with a 5.00 xFIP, allowing 0.87 HR/9, a 44.8% fly-ball rate, and a 34.5% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. Of course, we can expect those numbers to fluctuate a bit since it's a small sample size, but he doesn't appear to be a pitcher you need to fear. Ultimately, if the homer doesn't come against Ellis, Semien will still be in a good spot versus the Baltimore bullpen, whom are allowing 1.61 HR/9 to righties (third-worst in the league) and a 37.9% fly-ball rate (fourth-worst in the league).
Marcus Semien is the hitter I'll look at tonight with his .291 ISO, 146 wRC+, 46.6% fly-ball rate, 38.3% hard-contact rate, and 20.0% HR/FB ratio versus right-handed pitchers this season. He has a great matchup, but the same can be said for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+240), Bo Bichette (+290), Teoscar Hernandez (+200), or any of the Jays' righties.
Tyler Mahle Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+150)
Tyler Mahle is an incredibly strong pitcher, and his strikeout prop isn't high enough tonight.
Mahle comes in with an awesome 28.2% strikeout rate this season, which is the fifth or sixth-highest on tonight's slate -- just depending on which inning qualifications are used. Nonetheless, Mahle has shown that strikeout rate recently as he has posted 6+ strikeouts in five of his last six starts.
Tonight, he'll be up against the St. Louis Cardinals, who come in with a 22.1% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the sixth-lowest in the league. Typically, the Cardinals don't strike out a ton versus righties, but the UNDER 6.5 strikeout prop sitting at -192. With +150 on the other side, that's simply way too much juice on the over given the quality of pitcher Mahle has shown to be this year. He is too talented and gets too many strikeouts to pay that price for an under.
Mitch Haniger To Hit a Home Run (+350)
Will we be seeing some home runs from the Seattle Mariners tonight?
If that is going to be the case, it could certainly be led by Mitch Haniger, who has a juicy matchup against Madison Bumgarner. This season, Haniger comes in with a .259 ISO, a 130 wRC+, a 40.0% fly-ball rate, a 41.6% hard-contact rate, and a 24.0% HR/FB ratio versus lefties. Haniger fits the hitting profile I look for to a tee, and he is an ideal candidate for a home run in this spot.
The veteran Bumgarner is allowing 1.22 HR/9 to righties this season, along with a 5.07 xFIP, a 46.2% fly-ball rate, and a 39.8% hard-contact rate. Haniger and Bumgarner squaring off against each other exactly fits my "40-40" target. Once again, that is matching a hitter AND a pitcher's batted ball profiles -- for fly balls and hard contact -- which presents plenty of home run upside.
