FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Wednesday 9/15/21
This could be a wide open pitching slate, with no one hurler necessarily standing out above the rest. Only one arm cracks the $10,000 mark tonight. Similarly, there are a lot of possibilities on offense, with half of tonight's teams displaying implied totals of at least 4.50.
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Let's check out the top options on tonight's main slate.
Julio Urias ($10,300): I'm not sure I've written up Urias all season, but on a night lacking any true aces, this is a good spot to turn to him. The Dodgers lefty owns a 3.58 SIERA, 26.7% strikeout rate, and 5.0% this season, and on this slate, that can hang with anyone. He has consistently limited home runs throughout his career, and even with a slightly higher rate going out this year, 1.05 per nine innings is a strong mark.
He faces a Diamondbacks team that is sorely lacking in star power. The D-backs can start a lineup with a good number of righties and switch-hitters, which isn't ideal, but the bottom half of the order tends to feature inexperienced hitters against lefties, so this should still be an excellent matchup for Urias overall. Arizona checks in with a nonexistent 2.94 implied total.
Tylor Megill ($7,800): The trouble with rostering Urias is that the Dodgers give him inconsistent pitch counts, which can often prevent him from logging enough innings to earn a quality start. Given his skills and generally positive track record, he's still arguably the most likely guy to give us a solid score, but it comes at the cost of that premium salary.
Therefore, you could also consider dropping all the way down to Megill, who actually has similar marks to Urias and is coming off a season-high 55 FanDuel points versus the Yankees. In his rookie campaign, Megill is showing a 3.63 SIERA, 27.2% strikeout rate, and 6.2% walk rate over 15 starts. But he's also demonstrated some very stark splits, with a 5.11 xFIP and 24.1% strikeout rate versus lefties compared to a 2.68 xFIP and 30.3% strikeout rate versus righties.
That makes him much more matchup dependent, but tonight's opponent, St. Louis, is almost entirely made up of right-handed batters. Despite the Cardinals generally being a low-strikeout team, this lines up perfectly for Megill to take advantage of his splits and post a big score, and it's hard to pass up the potential value at this salary.
Huascar Ynoa ($8,400): Ynoa is another potential value option who can rival Urias, sporting a 3.59 SIERA, 27.0% strikeout rate, and 6.6% walk rate. Best of all, he's at home against the Rockies, whose active roster comes in with a pitiful 73 wRC+ and 25.2% strikeout rate on the road.
Ynoa hasn't posted a high-ceiling game since returning from the injured list in August, but this is the right matchup to get there. Colorado is showing a 3.64 implied total, the second-lowest of the night.
Chicago White Sox: Janson Junk made his MLB debut against the Rangers earlier this month and the end result was shaky at best, allowing two dingers and five runs (one earned) over 3 2/3 innings with one walk and two strikeouts. While an error certainly didn't help his cause, it wasn't a memorable appearance against one of the weakest offenses in baseball.
And if we look to the minors, Junk has a solid 26.8% strikeout rate this season -- except that came in Double-A. The young righty has never even made an appearance in Triple-A and now must make his second big league start against a deep White Sox lineup.
Jose Abreu ($4,000), Yasmani Grandal ($3,800), Luis Robert ($3,900), and Eloy Jimenez ($3,500) are some of the top bats, and you can also grab cheap power lower in the order through lefties Brian Goodwin ($2,200) and Gavin Sheets ($2,100).
Houston Astros: Kohei Arihara is another hurler short on experience, but in his case, we have nine starts of data to work with. A 5.35 SIERA, 14.6% strikeout rate, and 41.9% ground-ball rate shouldn't have the Astros shaking in their cleats, and Arihara has poor underlying numbers versus both lefties and righties alike.
You're probably more than familiar with the studs on Houston, and any of the usual suspects at salaries of $3,400 and above should be priorities, with Yordan Alvarez ($3,600) and Kyle Tucker ($3,400) continuing to be the top power options for one-offs.
Yuli Gurriel ($3,000) isn't super exciting on his own but continues to carry nice value as the number four or five hitter most nights. Guys like Chas McCormick ($2,200) and Jose Siri ($2,000) have demonstrated their share of pop, making them viable punts.
New York Yankees: John Means isn't a bad pitcher overall, but he's low on strikeouts (22.7%) and gives up a ton of fly balls (48.3%). Combine that with a potent Yankees lineup at a hitter-friendly Camden Yards, and it's easy to see some dingers in this one. Additionally, the Orioles' bullpen has posted a third-worst xFIP (5.38) over the last 30 days.
Righty sticks naturally top the list against the southpaw, with Aaron Judge ($4,300), Giancarlo Stanton ($4,000), Luke Voit ($3,200), and Gary Sanchez ($3,100) among the guys we can look to knock out some dingers. But given the lackluster bullpen, don't hesitate to include the lefties in some stacks, as well.