MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 9/22/21
Which MLB games offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Over 8.0 (-115): 1 Star out of 5
This starting pitching matchup features two starters who are greatly outperforming their xERA this season and both are likely due for some regression in the future. Seattle Mariners' starter, Chris Flexen has a 3.66 ERA but an xERA of 4.41, while Oakland Athletics' starter, Cole Irvin has a 3.94 ERA but an xERA of 4.88.
Neither starter has been as solid as their ERA makes it appear and these offenses combine to average well over eight runs per game (4.58 for the A’s and 4.26 for the Mariners). Our model projects a total of 8.78 runs in this game and we give a 52.10% chance of the over hitting and an 8.09% chance of a push, making this a 1-star betting opportunity.
Colorado Rockies +1.5 (+114): 1 Star out of 5
The Colorado Rockies are 27 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the standings and are 70-80 overall but they have been an elite team at home this season. Colorado is 45-28 at home, which is even slightly better than the Dodgers away record of 45-31, so home-field advantage will play a huge role in this game.
The Rockies also start their ace, German Marquez. Since Marquez plays in the most hitter-friendly park in MLB, his ERA is slightly inflated at 4.16, but he has an ERA+ (ballpark adjusted) of 115, meaning he is performing at 15% higher than the league average. He opposes Walker Buehler, who is having a Cy Young caliber season with an ERA of 2.39, but Coors Field can prove difficult for even the game’s elite pitchers. Buehler has a career ERA of 4.43 at Coors Field in 44.2 career innings, far higher than his career ERA in all ballparks (2.89).
Our model gives the Rockies a 47.97% chance to cover the runline of 1.5 and we like this as a 1-star betting opportunity given the plus odds.
Over 9.0 Runs (-110): 4 Stars out of 5
The Boston Red Sox should be expecting a big offensive output tonight against New York Mets starter, Taijuan Walker, as Walker has struggled mightily in the second half of the season. Walker posted a 2.66 ERA in the first half and made the All-Star team but in 55 innings in the second half he has an ERA of 7.04, allowing 18 home runs with a WHIP of 1.364.
The Red Sox are 4th in the league in runs scored with 5.14 per game and our model projects they will exceed that tonight with a projection of 5.59 runs. The Red Sox start Chris Sale, who has been amazing since returning from injury in August (2.40 ERA/3.46 xERA in 30 innings). However, Sale is only averaging 5.0 innings per start, so the Red Sox will need a lot of help from their bullpen in order to shut down the Mets offense.
Our model projects a 60.51% chance of the over hitting with a 9.92% chance of a push, making this a 4-star betting opportunity for Wednesday.