3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Friday 9/24/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Eduardo Escobar To Hit a Home Run (+340)
With a great matchup in front of him, Eduardo Escobar can cash in on his home run prop tonight.
Yes, Escobar has been a bit cold lately with no hits in his last four games, but he has a chance to turn things around tonight versus Tylor Megill. The year started out strong for Megill, but that has slowed down greatly, and he's a pitcher we can confidently attack tonight.
Megill comes in allowing 2.78 HR/9 with a 5.07 xFIP, .289 ISO, 53.2% fly-ball rate, and 39.1% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters. Those are some truly terrible numbers, and we want to find some home runs against him tonight.
We look to Escobar, who comes in with a .214 ISO, 48.4% fly-ball rate, and 33.6% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. While the hard contact rate isn't massive, we have seen Escobar hit 19 of his 28 home runs against righties this season, so this is the split we want him in.
Andrew Benintendi To Hit a Home Run (+550)
Will we see a home run from Andrew Benintendi tonight?
I'm certainly hoping so because he is going up against Casey Mize, who is seriously struggling with left-handed hitters this season. Mize comes in with a 4.80 xFIP, 2.22 HR/9, 9.1% walk rate, 48.2% hard-contact rate, 37.6% fly-ball rate, and 21.9% HR/FB rate versus lefties this season. Mize has allowed a total of 23 home runs this season and 16 have come from lefties.
Benintendi has a 41.8% fly-ball rate, 34.7% hard-contact rate, and .168 ISO versus right-handed pitchers this season. While these are modest numbers overall, we have seen Benintendi's average exit velocity, barrel rate, xSLG, and xwOBA all increase from July to September. He is trending in the right direction and has a great matchup to keep that going.
Nathan Eovaldi Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-102)
With both teams fighting for a wild card spot, they turn to their aces tonight for a strong outing. We turn to Nathan Eovaldi and his strikeout prop, which is sitting at 6.5 tonight. The over is nearly even money, and that is the spot we should be looking tonight against the Yankees, who have a 24.4% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the ninth-worst in the league.
Eovaldi comes in with a solid 26.0% strikeout rate this season, which he has been flexing lately, posting seven strikeouts or more in six straight starts. In this time, we have seen Eovaldi post a 31.8% strikeout rate or higher in five of those six starts. He is hitting his stride right now and the over is the spot to look.