MLB Betting Guide: Monday 9/27/21
Which MLB games offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Cleveland Moneyline (-112): 3 stars out of 5
Cleveland has a major advantage in the starting pitching matchup this afternoon against Kansas City, with Cal Quantrill going against Jackson Kowar. Quantrill has a 2.83 ERA in 143.2 innings this season, while Kowar has an 11.45 ERA in 22 innings. The gap in starting pitching closes slightly if we look at xERA, but Kowar still has a poor mark of 7.73 in that category, compared to 4.06 for Quantrill.
Cleveland is also ahead of Kansas City in runs scored, with 4.38 compared to 4.22, so they should be able to win given both their hitting and pitching advantages.
Our model gives Cleveland a 63.25% chance to win outright, making this a 3-star bet.
Colorado Rockies -1.5 (+100): 2 Stars out of 5
The Rockies start their ace German Marquez against Josiah Gray of the Washington Nationals, so Colorado should have a pitching advantage based on this matchup. Marquez has an ERA+ this season of 112 compared to 70 for Josiah Gray. ERA+ is park-adjusted and helps account for Marquez pitching at the most hitter-friendly park in MLB.
The Rockies also have home-field advantage, as they are 46-32 at home, whereas Washington has struggled on the road at 29-49. Furthermore, the Nationals are just 16-35 overall since trading Trea Turner and Max Scherzer at the deadline.
Our model gives Colorado a 56.67% chance to cover the spread of -1.5, and we like this as a 2-star bet.
Oakland +1.5 (-205): 1 Star out of 5
The Seattle Mariners may have a slight advantage in the starting pitching matchup in this one, with Chris Flexen starting against Cole Irvin. Flexen has a 3.56 ERA and 4.32 xERA compared to a 3.99 ERA and 4.92 xERA for Irvin.
However, the Oakland Athletics have the advantage on the offensive side of the ball, averaging 4.60 runs per game compared to 4.26 runs per game for Seattle. The Athletics also have a solid 102 wRC+ for the year, while the Mariners have been well below average at a 93 wRC+.
Overall, we like Oakland +1.5 as a 1-star betting opportunity for Monday night.