MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 9/28/21
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For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Over 8.5 (-122): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Cleveland +1.5 (-194): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Cleveland Moneyline (+102): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Our model sees all sorts of value in this game.
Singer was on a nice run at one point in the second half, but his numbers still aren't that good. He's giving up a .350 wOBA and 1.29 homers per nine since the break. He was bombed for five jacks two starts ago against the Minnesota Twins. It doesn't help him that the Cleveland Indians are swinging it well to close out the year, checking in 12th in wOBA (.328) over the last 14 days. We project Cleveland to plate a healthy 5.18 runs tonight.
The Kansas City Royals are also hot right now and hitting about as well as they have all season. In the last two weeks, they're 13th in wOBA (.327) with the 2nd-lowest strikeout rate (18.7%) in that time. So this isn't an easy matchup for Civale, who has been brutal of late, surrendering four homers in 1 2/3 frames in his last outing. Civale is also a reverse-splits guy who struggles against righties, which could get him into trouble versus Whit Merrifield and Salvador Perez.
In all, we project the underdog Indians to win 5.18-4.58. We give them win odds of 54.1%, and they are +102 on the moneyline, which implies wins odds of 49.5%. The better value, per our model, is taking the over and Cleveland to cover. The Indians have a 71.3% chance to cover as 1.5-run 'dogs, and they are -194 on the runline (66.0% implied odds). As for the total, we think the over wins out 60.6% of the time.
Washington +1.5 (-146): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Washington Moneyline (+122): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Over 12.0 (-105): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
There should be fireworks tonight at Coors, and we're into the underdog Washington Nationals.
Washington is turning to Patrick Corbin. While Corbin is clearly not the high-strikeout guy he was back in 2018 and 2019 and could get torched at Coors, he's been decent of late, turning in a quality start in three of his last four appearances. Of course, the one exception in that time was a four-inning, six-run dud at home to the Colorado Rockies. As I said, this could go poorly for Corbin, but the recent form is OK.
Kyle Freeland is toeing the slab for the Rox. In some ways, Freeland is having the best season of his career. That's not saying much, though. His strikeout rate (20.9%) and SIERA (4.32) are meh marks despite being career-best clips. Coors has been a nightmare for him, with Freeland permitting a .371 wOBA and 1.87 homers per nine this year in Denver. And the Nats just keep hitting, ranking seventh in wOBA (.337) across the last two weeks.
Our algorithm forecasts this to be a tight one, giving the underdog Nats a 51.1% chance to win. We project the final score to be 6.58-6.27 in favor of the Nationals and see value all over the place. We think Washington covers as 1.5-run underdogs 68.5% of the time, while the -146 price on the runline implies odds of 59.2%. Washington is obviously a value on the moneyline, per our numbers, and we give the over a 53.3% chance to hit. We rate all of those bets as two-star wagers.