MLB

MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Friday 5/13/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and betting opportunities at FanDuel Sportsbook.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
COLZack
Greinke
10.05.3244.0%28.6%16.9%9.1%4.5%
KCKyle
Freeland
10.04.6832.8%19.3%10.2%4.9%2.2%
MINAaron
Civale
8.54.6832.8%19.3%10.2%4.9%2.2%
TEXNick
Pivetta
9.04.5931.3%18.1%9.4%4.5%1.9%
ARIDrew
Smyly
8.54.4328.5%16.0%8.1%3.7%1.6%
LADKyle
Gibson
7.54.4228.3%15.9%8.0%3.7%1.5%
BOSDane
Dunning
9.04.4128.2%15.8%7.9%3.6%1.5%
NYMMarco
Gonzales
7.54.4028.0%15.6%7.9%3.6%1.5%
HOUJosiah
Gray
8.04.3627.3%15.1%7.6%3.4%1.4%
LAADaulton
Jefferies
8.04.2826.0%14.2%7.0%3.1%1.3%
DETJordan
Lyles
8.04.2625.7%13.9%6.8%3.0%1.2%
NYYVincent
Velasquez
7.54.1423.7%12.6%6.0%2.6%1.0%
PITTyler
Mahle
8.04.1023.1%12.1%5.7%2.4%1.0%
CHCZach
Davies
8.54.0722.6%11.8%5.5%2.4%0.9%
CINMitch
Keller
8.03.9019.9%10.1%4.5%1.9%0.7%
CLESonny
Gray
8.53.8218.7%9.3%4.1%1.6%0.6%
SFJordan
Hicks
7.53.8218.7%9.3%4.1%1.6%0.6%
ATLYu
Darvish
7.03.7617.9%8.7%3.8%1.5%0.5%
BALEduardo
Rodriguez
8.03.7417.6%8.5%3.7%1.5%0.5%
OAKChase
Silseth
8.03.7217.3%8.4%3.6%1.4%0.5%
STLLogan
Webb
7.53.6816.7%8.0%3.4%1.3%0.5%
WSHFramber
Valdez
8.03.6416.1%7.7%3.3%1.2%0.4%
CHWGerrit
Cole
7.53.3612.4%5.5%2.2%0.8%0.2%
TORDrew
Rasmussen
6.53.3612.4%5.5%2.2%0.8%0.2%
SDMax
Fried
7.03.2411.0%4.7%1.8%0.6%0.2%
MILPablo
Lopez
6.03.2110.7%4.5%1.7%0.6%0.2%
TBKevin
Gausman
6.53.149.9%4.1%1.5%0.5%0.2%
SEAMax
Scherzer
7.53.109.4%3.9%1.4%0.5%0.1%
PHIClayton
Kershaw
7.53.089.2%3.8%1.4%0.4%0.1%
MIACorbin
Burnes
6.02.796.4%2.4%0.8%0.2%0.1%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Max
Scherzer
SEA7.794.7%88.1%77.8%64.6%50.2%36.3%24.5%
Corbin
Burnes
MIA7.493.7%86.1%74.9%60.9%46.2%32.6%21.3%
Kevin
Gausman
TB7.292.9%84.7%72.8%58.4%43.6%30.1%19.4%
Gerrit
Cole
CHW6.890.8%80.9%67.4%52.2%37.3%24.6%15.1%
Clayton
Kershaw
PHI6.589.1%78.1%63.7%48.0%33.3%21.3%12.6%
Max
Fried
SD5.983.8%69.9%53.5%37.4%24.0%14.1%7.6%
Yu
Darvish
ATL5.983.7%69.7%53.3%37.3%23.8%14.0%7.5%
Dane
Dunning
BOS5.680.5%65.2%48.1%32.3%19.8%11.1%5.7%
Eduardo
Rodriguez
BAL5.579.7%64.1%46.9%31.2%18.9%10.5%5.3%
Tyler
Mahle
PIT5.579.7%64.1%46.9%31.2%18.9%10.5%5.3%
Logan
Webb
STL5.478.9%63.0%45.7%30.1%18.1%9.9%5.0%
Pablo
Lopez
MIL5.377.7%61.4%44.0%28.6%16.9%9.1%4.5%
Sonny
Gray
CLE5.276.7%60.1%42.6%27.4%16.0%8.5%4.1%
Framber
Valdez
WSH5.174.6%57.3%39.8%25.0%14.2%7.3%3.5%
Nick
Pivetta
TEX5.073.1%55.4%37.9%23.3%13.0%6.6%3.1%
Kyle
Gibson
LAD5.072.9%55.2%37.7%23.2%12.9%6.6%3.0%
Jordan
Lyles
DET4.870.0%51.6%34.2%20.4%11.0%5.4%2.4%
Josiah
Gray
HOU4.768.6%50.0%32.6%19.1%10.1%4.9%2.1%
Kyle
Freeland
KC4.668.1%49.4%32.1%18.7%9.9%4.7%2.1%
Drew
Rasmussen
TOR4.463.9%44.7%27.8%15.5%7.8%3.5%1.5%
Chase
Silseth
OAK4.463.2%43.9%27.2%15.0%7.5%3.4%1.4%
Mitch
Keller
CIN4.261.2%41.8%25.3%13.7%6.7%2.9%1.2%
Vincent
Velasquez
NYY4.259.9%40.4%24.2%12.9%6.2%2.7%1.1%
Marco
Gonzales
NYM4.056.7%37.1%21.5%11.1%5.1%2.1%0.8%
Aaron
Civale
MIN3.954.9%35.4%20.1%10.2%4.6%1.9%0.7%
Zack
Greinke
COL3.852.7%33.2%18.4%9.1%4.0%1.6%0.6%
Drew
Smyly
ARI3.648.3%29.2%15.5%7.2%3.0%1.1%0.4%
Zach
Davies
CHC3.547.0%28.0%14.6%6.8%2.8%1.0%0.4%
Daulton
Jefferies
LAA3.444.4%25.8%13.1%5.9%2.3%0.8%0.3%
Jordan
Hicks
SF2.932.4%16.3%7.1%2.7%0.9%0.3%0.1%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all home run props at FanDuel Sportsbook here.

Batter Team Opp PA Proj
HR
HR
Probability
xHR
Odds
Yordan AlvarezHOUWSH4.610.3624.3%+312
Kyle TuckerHOUWSH4.390.3523.8%+319
Jose AltuveHOUWSH4.940.3423.4%+328
Jose RamirezCLEMIN4.540.3322.9%+336
Ronald AcunaATLSD4.550.3222.4%+346
Pete AlonsoNYMSEA4.270.3222.4%+346
Jordan LuplowARICHC4.500.3121.9%+356
Brandon BeltSFSTL4.740.3021.4%+367
Brandon LoweTBTOR4.540.3021.4%+367
C.J. CronCOLKC4.270.2920.9%+378
Byron BuxtonMINCLE4.610.2920.9%+378
Rhys HoskinsPHILAD4.270.2920.9%+378
Austin RileyATLSD4.220.2920.9%+378
Joey GalloNYYCHW4.160.2820.4%+391
Giancarlo StantonNYYCHW4.500.2719.8%+404
Rafael OrtegaCHCARI4.830.2619.3%+418
Eugenio SuarezSEANYM4.320.2619.3%+418
Aaron JudgeNYYCHW4.720.2619.3%+418
Gavin SheetsCHWNYY4.010.2619.3%+418
Jorge PolancoMINCLE4.280.2518.7%+434
Joc PedersonSFSTL4.520.2518.7%+434
Christian WalkerARICHC4.280.2518.7%+434
Anthony RizzoNYYCHW4.610.2418.2%+451
Salvador PerezKCCOL4.490.2418.2%+451
Bryce HarperPHILAD4.380.2418.2%+451
Adam DuvallATLSD3.890.2418.2%+451
Max KeplerMINCLE4.500.2418.2%+451
Alex BregmanHOUWSH4.720.2418.2%+451
Mike ZuninoTBTOR3.650.2317.6%+469
George SpringerTORTB4.740.2317.6%+469
Randal GrichukCOLKC4.380.2317.6%+469
Matt OlsonATLSD4.440.2317.6%+469
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TORTB4.510.2317.6%+469
Ryan MountcastleBALDET4.270.2317.6%+469
Marcus SemienTEXBOS4.440.2217.0%+490
Corey SeagerTEXBOS4.330.2217.0%+490
Gary SanchezMINCLE4.390.2217.0%+490
Shohei OhtaniLAAOAK4.500.2217.0%+490
Nelson CruzWSHHOU4.280.2116.3%+512
Jorge SolerMIAMIL4.240.2116.3%+512
Max MuncyLADPHI4.140.2116.3%+512
Ji-Man ChoiTBTOR4.210.2116.3%+512
Willy AdamesMILMIA4.600.2116.3%+512
Adolis GarciaTEXBOS4.110.2116.3%+512
Patrick WisdomCHCARI4.050.2116.3%+512
Sean MurphyOAKLAA4.320.2116.3%+512
Ryan JeffersMINCLE3.830.2116.3%+512
Alex KirilloffMINCLE3.940.2116.3%+512
Josh DonaldsonNYYCHW4.380.2015.7%+536
Brad MillerTEXBOS4.550.2015.7%+536
Jesse WinkerSEANYM4.200.2015.7%+536
Andrew BenintendiKCCOL4.600.2015.7%+536
Teoscar HernandezTORTB4.400.2015.7%+536
Hunter RenfroeMILMIA4.150.2015.7%+536
Cody BellingerLADPHI3.910.2015.7%+536
Franmil ReyesCLEMIN4.210.2015.7%+536
Seth BrownOAKLAA4.210.2015.7%+536
Brandon CrawfordSFSTL4.190.1915.1%+564
Mike MoustakasCINPIT4.510.1915.1%+564
Manny MachadoSDATL4.500.1915.1%+564
Jonathan SchoopDETBAL4.050.1915.1%+564
Jose AbreuCHWNYY4.350.1915.1%+564
Ian HappCHCARI4.610.1915.1%+564
Bryan ReynoldsPITCIN4.390.1915.1%+564
LaMonte Wade JrSFSTL4.860.1915.1%+564
Luis RobertCHWNYY4.240.1915.1%+564
Mike TroutLAAOAK4.610.1814.4%+594
Tommy PhamCINPIT4.620.1814.4%+594
Kyle SchwarberPHILAD4.040.1814.4%+594
Willson ContrerasCHCARI4.490.1814.4%+594
Dan VogelbachPITCIN4.280.1814.4%+594
Cedric MullinsBALDET4.720.1814.4%+594
Luis UriasMILMIA4.260.1814.4%+594
Chas McCormickHOUWSH4.270.1814.4%+594
Eduardo EscobarNYMSEA3.930.1713.7%+628
Evan LongoriaSFSTL4.630.1713.7%+628
J.D. MartinezBOSTEX4.540.1713.7%+628
Yasmani GrandalCHWNYY4.130.1713.7%+628
Travis d'ArnaudATLSD4.330.1713.7%+628
Robbie GrossmanDETBAL4.610.1713.7%+628
Nick CastellanosPHILAD4.490.1713.7%+628
Javier BaezDETBAL4.380.1713.7%+628
James McCannNYMSEA3.710.1713.7%+628
Colin MoranCINPIT4.290.1713.7%+628
Jeimer CandelarioDETBAL4.270.1713.7%+628
Austin MeadowsDETBAL4.490.1713.7%+628
Matt ChapmanTORTB4.070.1713.7%+628
Ryan McMahonCOLKC4.160.1713.7%+628
Anthony SantanderBALDET4.500.1713.7%+628
Rowdy TellezMILMIA4.370.1713.7%+628
Joey BartSFSTL3.970.1713.7%+628
Miguel CabreraDETBAL4.160.1613.1%+666
Chris TaylorLADPHI3.800.1613.1%+666
Matt ReynoldsCINPIT3.950.1613.1%+666
Brandon NimmoNYMSEA4.600.1613.1%+666
Austin HaysBALDET4.380.1613.1%+666
Tyler O'NeillSTLSF4.090.1613.1%+666
Juan SotoWSHHOU4.510.1613.1%+666
Ramon LaureanoOAKLAA4.100.1613.1%+666
Jared WalshLAAOAK4.280.1613.1%+666
Will SmithLADPHI4.250.1613.1%+666
Bo BichetteTORTB4.630.1613.1%+666
Sam HilliardCOLKC3.820.1613.1%+666
Ramon UriasBALDET4.050.1613.1%+666
Jazz ChisholmMIAMIL4.460.1613.1%+666
Seiya SuzukiCHCARI4.720.1613.1%+666
Alek ThomasARICHC3.830.1613.1%+666
Nolan ArenadoSTLSF4.310.1512.4%+709
Jonathan VillarCHCARI3.940.1512.4%+709
Mookie BettsLADPHI4.580.1512.4%+709
Mark CanhaNYMSEA4.490.1512.4%+709
Francisco LindorNYMSEA4.380.1512.4%+709
Ketel MarteARICHC4.390.1512.4%+709
Rafael DeversBOSTEX4.660.1512.4%+709
Ty FranceSEANYM4.540.1512.4%+709
Tyler NevinBALDET4.160.1512.4%+709
Charlie BlackmonCOLKC4.490.1411.6%+759
Martin MaldonadoHOUWSH4.050.1411.6%+759
Starling MarteNYMSEA4.040.1411.6%+759
Maikel FrancoWSHHOU4.170.1411.6%+759
Brandon DruryCINPIT4.730.1411.6%+759
Trey ManciniBALDET4.610.1411.6%+759
Luke VoitSDATL4.170.1411.6%+759
J.D. DavisNYMSEA4.160.1411.6%+759
Lourdes GurrielTORTB4.290.1411.6%+759
Randy ArozarenaTBTOR3.870.1411.6%+759
Luis BarreraOAKLAA3.980.1411.6%+759
Spencer TorkelsonDETBAL3.830.1411.6%+759
Cooper HummelARICHC4.610.1411.6%+759
DJ LeMahieuNYYCHW4.830.1310.9%+816
Freddie FreemanLADPHI4.470.1310.9%+816
Jason HeywardCHCARI4.160.1310.9%+816
Jed LowrieOAKLAA4.430.1310.9%+816
Kole CalhounTEXBOS3.990.1310.9%+816
Jackie BradleyBOSTEX3.880.1310.9%+816
Marcell OzunaATLSD4.110.1310.9%+816
Austin HedgesCLEMIN3.870.1310.9%+816
Yoan MoncadaCHWNYY4.460.1310.9%+816
Ozzie AlbiesATLSD4.000.1310.9%+816
Mike YastrzemskiSFSTL4.410.1310.9%+816
Abraham ToroSEANYM3.980.1310.9%+816
Jake CronenworthSDATL4.730.1310.9%+816
Tyler StephensonCINPIT4.400.1310.9%+816
Jonah HeimTEXBOS4.220.1310.9%+816
Jarred KelenicSEANYM3.870.1310.9%+816
Alfonso RivasCHCARI4.380.1310.9%+816
Jose IglesiasCOLKC3.710.1210.2%+883
Justin TurnerLADPHI4.030.1210.2%+883
A.J. PollockCHWNYY3.900.1210.2%+883
Avisail GarciaMIAMIL3.900.1210.2%+883
Anthony RendonLAAOAK4.390.1210.2%+883
J.T. RealmutoPHILAD4.150.1210.2%+883
Gio UrshelaMINCLE4.050.1210.2%+883
Josh BellWSHHOU4.390.1210.2%+883
Dansby SwansonATLSD3.660.1210.2%+883
Brett PhillipsTBTOR3.760.1210.2%+883
Amed RosarioCLEMIN4.100.1210.2%+883
Lane ThomasWSHHOU3.950.1210.2%+883
Josh VanMeterPITCIN3.950.1210.2%+883
Ha-Seong KimSDATL4.060.1210.2%+883
Geraldo PerdomoARICHC3.940.1210.2%+883
Rodolfo CastroPITCIN3.730.1210.2%+883
Brandon MarshLAAOAK4.170.1210.2%+883
Jose HerreraARICHC3.720.1210.2%+883
Robinson ChirinosBALDET3.940.119.4%+962
Jurickson ProfarSDATL4.610.119.4%+962
Wil MyersSDATL4.280.119.4%+962
Jesus AguilarMIAMIL4.350.119.4%+962
Nick AhmedARICHC4.050.119.4%+962
Enrique HernandezBOSTEX4.770.119.4%+962
Elias DiazCOLKC4.050.119.4%+962
Trevor StoryBOSTEX4.210.119.4%+962
Tyler NaquinCINPIT4.180.119.4%+962
Yulieski GurrielHOUWSH4.500.119.4%+962
Josh NaylorCLEMIN4.320.119.4%+962
Andres GimenezCLEMIN3.980.119.4%+962
Ke'Bryan HayesPITCIN4.510.119.4%+962
Jose MirandaMINCLE4.160.119.4%+962
Cesar HernandezWSHHOU4.620.108.6%+1058
Xander BogaertsBOSTEX4.430.108.6%+1058
Trea TurnerLADPHI4.360.108.6%+1058
Manuel MargotTBTOR4.100.108.6%+1058
Tim AndersonCHWNYY4.570.108.6%+1058
Andrew KnappPITCIN3.840.108.6%+1058
Garrett CooperMIAMIL4.010.108.6%+1058
Kyle FarmerCINPIT4.060.108.6%+1058
Taylor WardLAAOAK4.730.108.6%+1058
Andrew VelazquezLAAOAK3.840.108.6%+1058
Myles StrawCLEMIN4.760.108.6%+1058
Sheldon NeuseOAKLAA4.540.108.6%+1058
Dylan CarlsonSTLSF3.980.108.6%+1058
Cristian PacheOAKLAA3.760.108.6%+1058
Eli WhiteTEXBOS3.660.108.6%+1058
Jeremy PenaHOUWSH4.160.108.6%+1058
Bobby Witt Jr.KCCOL4.270.108.6%+1058
Steven KwanCLEMIN4.650.108.6%+1058
Royce LewisMINCLE3.720.108.6%+1058
Eric HosmerSDATL4.390.097.8%+1174
Tucker BarnhartDETBAL3.720.097.8%+1174
Odubel HerreraPHILAD3.710.097.8%+1174
Tyler WadeLAAOAK4.060.097.8%+1174
Yandy DiazTBTOR4.320.097.8%+1174
Johan CamargoPHILAD3.820.097.8%+1174
Adam EngelCHWNYY3.790.097.8%+1174
Alex VerdugoBOSTEX4.320.097.8%+1174
Isiah Kiner-FalefaNYYCHW4.050.097.8%+1174
Willi CastroDETBAL3.940.097.8%+1174
Wander FrancoTBTOR4.430.097.8%+1174
Owen MillerCLEMIN4.430.097.8%+1174
Juan YepezSTLSF4.200.097.8%+1174
Jack SuwinskiPITCIN4.060.097.8%+1174
Aaron HicksNYYCHW4.270.087.0%+1320
Harrison BaderSTLSF3.750.087.0%+1320
Chad WallachLAAOAK3.950.087.0%+1320
Jeff McNeilNYMSEA3.820.087.0%+1320
Nathaniel LoweTEXBOS3.880.087.0%+1320
Connor JoeCOLKC4.600.087.0%+1320
Brendan RodgersCOLKC3.940.087.0%+1320
Josh RojasARICHC4.170.087.0%+1320
Nick SolakTEXBOS3.770.087.0%+1320
Tyrone TaylorMILMIA3.930.087.0%+1320
Nico HoernerCHCARI4.270.087.0%+1320
Jorge MateoBALDET3.830.087.0%+1320
Santiago EspinalTORTB3.960.087.0%+1320
Julio RodriguezSEANYM4.090.087.0%+1320
Paul GoldschmidtSTLSF4.420.076.2%+1507
Jean SeguraPHILAD3.930.076.2%+1507
Christian YelichMILMIA4.490.076.2%+1507
Christian VazquezBOSTEX3.990.076.2%+1507
Victor RoblesWSHHOU3.840.076.2%+1507
Travis DemeritteATLSD3.770.076.2%+1507
Luis GonzalezSFSTL4.080.076.2%+1507
Alejandro KirkTORTB4.180.076.2%+1507
TJ FriedlCINPIT4.840.076.2%+1507
Brendan DonovanSTLSF3.640.076.2%+1507
Jose AzocarSDATL3.840.076.2%+1507