3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Monday 5/16/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Mookie Betts To Hit a Home Run (+420)
The Los Angeles Dodgers have a juicy 5.03 implied run total tonight and are an elite spot for player props.
That 5.03 implied run total is the highest for any team not at Coors Field tonight, and that is because they are going up against Madison Bumgarner, who comes in with a 4.61 xFIP, allowing 1.50 HR/9, a 47.2% fly-ball rate, and a 35.1% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters this season.
We turn to Mookie Betts, who has fantastic odds tonight given how easy this matchup is. Betts is carrying a 112 wRC+, a .325 wOBA, and a 37.5% fly-ball rate versus left-handed pitchers this season. It's also good to know that the Arizona Diamondbacks' bullpen is in the bottom 10 of the league for the most HR/9 (1.10) allowed to righties this season. If it doesn't get done versus Mad Bum, he has a great matchup versus the bullpen for a home run.
With this type of matchup, it's also worth considering Will Smith (+360) and Freddie Freeman (+420).
Ian Anderson Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+110)
Ian Anderson's strikeout prop is only 4.5 tonight, and I'm going with the over.
Anderson is carrying a 17.1% strikeout rate this season, which is rather modest, but he should be due for a bit of an increase. Last season, he posted a 23.2% strikeout rate, and in 2020, he posted a 29.7% strikeout rate. His career strikeout rate is 23.3%, so he's currently performing a bit lower than what we should be seeing from him.
Anderson is also holding a 13.3% swinging-strike rate this season, which is the best he's posted in the MLB. To compare, Max Scherzer has a 14.1% swinging-strike rate this season, and Carlos Rodon has a 14.5% swinging-strike rate.
The point is that Anderson is doing some good things this season; he just isn't racking up a ton of strikeouts. Tonight, he's going up against the Milwaukee Brewers, who have a 24.8% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers (sixth-worst in the league).
Hopefully, this soft matchup will help Anderson start to boost his strikeout rate -- and hit the over on 4.5 strikeouts at plus money.
Freddie Freeman To Record an RBI (+115)
Another hitter from the Dodgers with a great prop tonight.
This hitter would be Freddie Freeman, who normally hits in the two-hole for the Dodgers. What a spot that is.
Everything mentioned above about the Dodgers and their matchup versus Bumgarner is true for Freeman. A 5.03 implied run total is a target you should be looking towards for multiple player props. I like Betts for a home run and Freeman for an RBI. The plus money (+115) is too good to pass up.
Freeman comes in with a 114 wRC+, a .170 ISO, a 36.1% hard-contact rate, and a .343 wOBA versus left-handed pitchers this year. Adding in a Freeman to post two-plus total bases at +105 is also a spot worth considering.
It's all about the Dodgers tonight.
