MLB Betting Guide: Monday 5/16/22
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For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Over 7.5 Runs (-118): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Kyle Bradish and Luis Severino tangle today at Camden Yards, which has been less hitter-friendly than usual this season thanks to the new dimensions. While both pitchers have the ability to generate strikeouts, they also have some warts in their profile, and our algorithm likes the over to cash.
Bradish has mostly been really good in his rookie campaign, pitching to a 3.19 SIERA with a 25.0% strikeout rate and 4.7% walk rate. But we're dealing with a tiny sample of 17 innings, and when Bradish allows contact, it's usually loud. Hitters have racked up a 43.2% hard-hit rate and 40.9% fly-ball rate against him, leading to 1.59 dingers per nine. Facing a New York Yankees lineup that has plenty of pop, Bradish might give up a few dingers tonight.
Coming into 2022, Severino had thrown a mere 18 MLB innings since the end of 2018, as he's struggled to stay healthy. In 28 2/3 innings this year, he's flashed the stuff that made him look like an emerging ace before the injuries, striking out 25.0% of hitters. But he's surrendered at least three earned runs in three straight outings, and two of those were versus the meh offenses of the Kansas City Royals and the same Baltimore Orioles he'll see tonight.
Our model projects the Yanks to win by a score of 5.50-3.95. That's 9.45 total runs -- nearly two runs over the listed total. We project the over to win out 65.8% of the time and mark it as a three-star bet.
Oakland Moneyline (+108): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
There's value tonight in the Oakland Athletics, per our model.
Logue, a lefty, has just 13 1/3 MLB innings to his name, but he's looked pretty good thus far, sporting a 3.90 SIERA, 22.2% strikeout rate and 5.6% walk rate. His minor-league profile checks out, too, as he totaled a 25.2% strikeout rate and 12.1% swinging-strike rate last year across 89 1/3 innings in Triple-A.
Archer, meanwhile, isn't off to a good start. His 22.0% strikeout rate isn't bad, but Archer is walking 12.0% of hitters while permitting a 45.5% fly-ball rate -- leading to 2.42 homers per nine. The homer issue isn't small-sample noise, either. Since the start of 2019, Archer has given up 1.90 taters per nine over 161 1/3 innings. While the Athletics' offense is bad, they can have some success in this matchup.
The A's are priced as slight underdogs, but we have them winning this game 54.4% of the time. Taking Oakland to win outright is a two-star wager, per our model.