3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 5/17/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Mike Trout To Hit a Home Run (+310)
Mike Trout is good.
Not sure if you've heard, but this Mike Trout guy is pretty good at baseball. That's why we're looking to him tonight for his home run prop (+310) in a great matchup versus Taylor Hearn.
Over the course of Hearn's four-year MLB career, he has allowed a 5.00 xFIP, a .341 wOBA, 1.15 HR/9, a 39.8% fly-ball rate, and a 37.5% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. Those are some rough numbers to be sporting against a dangerous and high-scoring lineup from the Los Angeles Angels.
Trout is obviously elite, and this season, he comes in with a 263 wRC+, a .370 ISO, a 42.9 % fly-ball rate, and a 38.1% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. This is a near-perfect match for the 40-40 line I like to look for, and we just happen to get it from the best player in the league.
Giancarlo Stanton To Record an RBI (-110)
As usual, when a team has a high implied run total, we look there for a few player props with a bit of correlation. The Yankees are going up against Spenser Watkins, who is off to a very rough start this season versus right-handed hitters, allowing a .461 wOBA, a .661 SLG, a 5.96 xFIP, 2.51 HR/9, and a 43.1% fly-ball rate. Those are among the worst numbers you will find on this slate, and this is a great spot to attack with some props.
Giancarlo Stanton has tremendous power with a 176 wRC+, a .292 ISO, a 44.6% hard-contact rate, and a 36.4% HR/FB ratio this season versus right-handed pitchers. He hits in the heart of the Yankees' lineup and should be able to cash in on this prop easily. I'll also look to add Stanton 2+ RBIs at +320, and if you're feeling spicy, Stanton 3+ RBIs at +800.
Dylan Bundy Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-136)
While I don't like the juice, I love this bet.
The -136 odds aren't great, especially on an under, but this looks like the right bet to make. Dylan Bundy is set to make his first start since returning from the COVID list and is reported to be on some type of pitch count. Fundamentally, this will limit the amount of time he has to rack up strikeouts. Bundy also isn't a big-time strikeout pitcher and has gone under this total in three of his five starts this season. He is posting a 20.6% strikeout rate this season, which is the lowest of his career.
Add the limited pitch count with the lack of strikeouts, and it all points to the under 4.5 strikeouts for Bundy tonight.