3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Friday 6/10/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Salvador Perez To Hit a Home Run (+300)
The Kansas City Royals have a solid 4.75 implied run total and could see some of that come via the long ball.
A favorable matchup should put several of the Royals' hitters in a good spot, and that starts with Salvador Perez. He's having another solid season and comes in with a 158 wRC+, a .390 wOBA, a .255 ISO, and a 50.0% fly-ball rate versus left-handed pitchers. Those are solid numbers across the board for Perez, who is locked in at the plate with hits in five of his last six games.
He'll be up against Bruce Zimmermann of the Baltimore Orioles, a pitcher we can certainly attack via player props.
This year, Zimmermann is allowing a .532 SLG, a .374 wOBA, a 4.75 xFIP, 1.86 HR/9, and a 42.2% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters. Those are among the worst numbers on the slate, and it puts Perez and the Royals in a great spot.
Jose Berrios Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-152)
A soft matchup against the Detroit Tigers puts Jose Berrios in a favorable spot, too.
A strikeout prop sitting at 4.5 is rather low for Berrios, but it comes with a good bit of juice at -152. I love the line of 4.5, I love the matchup against the Tigers, but I don't love the juice. This puts Berrios and his strikeout prop in a spot for a bit of a ladder to grab some plus money, which I'll get back to.
Berrios is carrying a 19.8% strikeout rate this season, which is noticeably lower than what he posted last season at 26.1% and what he posted in 2020 at 25.1%. His strikeout rate has been a rollercoaster this season on a game-to-game basis, from 0.0%, 7.1%, 28.0%, and all the way up to 50.0%.
What's encouraging is that the strikeout rates of 28.0% and 50.0% have come in two of his last three starts. In those games, he racked up 7 and 13 strikeouts, respectively.
Hopefully, this is the spot for him to turn the corner and have a bit of positive regression back to the strikeout rate he's been known for over the last few seasons. The matchup against the Tigers should help him continue this recent strikeout surge since they come in with a 25.0% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers (fourth-worst in the league).
To circle back on the potential for a strikeout ladder, I'll look to add Berrios 6+ Strikeouts (+144) and Berrios 7+ Strikeouts (+300). With the matchup being so favorable, if Berrios reaches for his strikeout ceiling, he can cruise past the 4.5 mark, and the juice is not an issue at that point.
Aaron Judge To Record an RBI (+125)
With a huge 5.07 implied run total, the New York Yankees are in a spot to flex their offense tonight.
That implied run total is the second-highest on the slate and it's a good indication we are going to see plenty of runs from the Bronx Bombers. They are going up against Wade Miley, who is set to return from the injured list tonight and has only 16.0 innings pitched this season.
If we look back to last year, Miley allowed a .331 wOBA, a 4.20 xFIP, a .431 SLG, and had a low 17.1% strikeout rate versus right-handed hitters.
We turn to Aaron Judge, who is having a remarkable season and comes in with a 109 wRC+, a .274 ISO, a .484 SLG, a 40.0% fly-ball rate, and a 40.0% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers.
Judge hits near the top of the Yankees' lineup and is always in a good spot to pick up an RBI. Given his home run potential, it's reasonable to add Judge 2+ RBI (+400) for some serious plus money.
