MLB

MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Thursday 6/30/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at FanDuel Sportsbook.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
CHCGraham
Ashcraft
10.05.1641.2%26.2%15.1%7.9%3.8%
CINKyle
Hendricks
10.04.8435.6%21.5%11.7%5.8%2.6%
CLEChris
Archer
8.54.6532.3%18.9%9.9%4.8%2.1%
PHIIan
Anderson
8.54.6331.9%18.6%9.8%4.7%2.0%
SEAAdrian
Martinez
7.54.4228.3%15.9%8.0%3.7%1.5%
MILJT
Brubaker
8.54.3927.8%15.5%7.8%3.5%1.5%
PITAdrian
Houser
8.54.1123.2%12.2%5.8%2.5%1.0%
NYYLuis
Garcia
8.04.1023.1%12.1%5.7%2.4%1.0%
LADJoe
Musgrove
7.53.9721.0%10.8%4.9%2.0%0.8%
HOULuis
Severino
8.03.9019.9%10.1%4.5%1.9%0.7%
ATLAaron
Nola
8.53.8719.5%9.8%4.4%1.8%0.7%
MINShane
Bieber
8.53.8519.2%9.6%4.3%1.7%0.6%
SDMitch
White
7.53.5314.6%6.8%2.8%1.0%0.4%
OAKLogan
Gilbert
7.53.089.2%3.8%1.4%0.4%0.1%
TBYusei
Kikuchi
0.00.000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
TORJeffrey
Springs
0.00.000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Aaron
Nola
ATL7.292.8%84.4%72.3%57.8%43.0%29.6%18.9%
Shane
Bieber
MIN7.192.2%83.4%70.9%56.2%41.3%28.1%17.8%
Luis
Severino
HOU6.689.7%79.2%65.1%49.5%34.8%22.5%13.5%
Joe
Musgrove
LAD6.387.4%75.4%60.3%44.3%30.0%18.6%10.7%
Logan
Gilbert
OAK6.286.3%73.7%58.1%42.1%28.0%17.1%9.6%
Luis
Garcia
NYY5.479.1%63.3%46.1%30.5%18.3%10.1%5.1%
Jeffrey
Springs
TOR5.377.0%60.4%43.0%27.7%16.2%8.6%4.2%
Ian
Anderson
PHI5.175.0%57.9%40.3%25.4%14.5%7.6%3.6%
JT
Brubaker
MIL4.667.1%48.3%31.1%17.9%9.3%4.4%1.9%
Yusei
Kikuchi
TB4.666.9%48.1%30.9%17.8%9.2%4.4%1.9%
Kyle
Hendricks
CIN4.362.5%43.1%26.5%14.5%7.2%3.2%1.3%
Adrian
Houser
PIT4.361.7%42.4%25.8%14.1%6.9%3.1%1.2%
Mitch
White
SD4.261.2%41.8%25.3%13.7%6.7%2.9%1.2%
Graham
Ashcraft
CHC4.056.5%36.9%21.3%11.0%5.1%2.1%0.8%
Adrian
Martinez
SEA3.851.6%32.2%17.7%8.6%3.8%1.5%0.5%
Chris
Archer
CLE3.648.9%29.7%15.9%7.5%3.2%1.2%0.4%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Notes: The "Platoon?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Platoon? HR
PF
Opp
Pitcher
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Aaron
Judge
NYYNo101Luis
Garcia
26.9%+270
Byron
Buxton
MINNo99Shane
Bieber
25.4%+295
Austin
Riley
ATLNo110Aaron
Nola
24.8%+305
Josh
Naylor
CLEYes103Chris
Archer
22.2%+350
Giancarlo
Stanton
NYYNo101Luis
Garcia
22.0%+355
George
Springer
TORYes101Jeffrey
Springs
21.5%+365
Vladimir
Guerrero Jr.
TORYes101Jeffrey
Springs
21.5%+365
Trea
Turner
LADNo107Joe
Musgrove
21.3%+370
Rhys
Hoskins
PHINo110Ian
Anderson
21.2%+370
Sean
Murphy
OAKNo99Logan
Gilbert
20.7%+385
Willy
Adames
MILNo92JT
Brubaker
20.1%+395
Jose
Altuve
HOUNo101Luis
Severino
19.4%+415
Isaac
Paredes
TBYes101Yusei
Kikuchi
19.2%+420
Rowdy
Tellez
MILYes95JT
Brubaker
18.8%+430
Kyle
Tucker
HOUYes102Luis
Severino
18.7%+435
Brandon
Drury
CINNo103Kyle
Hendricks
18.5%+440
Adam
Duvall
ATLNo110Aaron
Nola
18.2%+450
Anthony
Rizzo
NYYYes102Luis
Garcia
18.1%+450
Lourdes
Gurriel
TORYes101Jeffrey
Springs
17.9%+455
Chris
Taylor
LADNo107Joe
Musgrove
17.8%+460
Matt
Olson
ATLYes106Aaron
Nola
17.4%+475
Gary
Sanchez
MINNo99Shane
Bieber
17.4%+475
Teoscar
Hernandez
TORYes101Jeffrey
Springs
17.3%+480
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes103Chris
Archer
17.0%+490
Yordan
Alvarez
HOUYes102Luis
Severino
16.9%+495
Eugenio
Suarez
SEANo99Adrian
Martinez
16.8%+495
Patrick
Wisdom
CHCNo103Graham
Ashcraft
16.7%+500
Joey
Votto
CINYes96Kyle
Hendricks
16.7%+500
Luke
Voit
SDNo107Mitch
White
16.5%+505
Josh
Donaldson
NYYNo101Luis
Garcia
16.4%+510
Chas
McCormick
HOUNo101Luis
Severino
16.4%+510
Jorge
Polanco
MINYes103Shane
Bieber
16.3%+510
Ronald
Acuna
ATLNo110Aaron
Nola
16.2%+515
Manny
Machado
SDNo107Mitch
White
15.9%+530
DJ
LeMahieu
NYYNo101Luis
Garcia
15.8%+535
Ji-Man
Choi
TBNo94Yusei
Kikuchi
15.7%+535
Ian
Happ
CHCYes96Graham
Ashcraft
15.4%+550
Kyle
Schwarber
PHIYes106Ian
Anderson
15.4%+550
Randy
Arozarena
TBYes101Yusei
Kikuchi
15.3%+555
Will
Smith
LADNo107Joe
Musgrove
15.2%+560
Carlos
Correa
MINNo99Shane
Bieber
14.9%+570
Donovan
Solano
CINNo103Kyle
Hendricks
14.7%+580
Willson
Contreras
CHCNo103Graham
Ashcraft
14.7%+580
Christopher
Morel
CHCNo103Graham
Ashcraft
14.7%+580
Bryan
Reynolds
PITYes95Adrian
Houser
14.7%+580
Tyrone
Taylor
MILNo92JT
Brubaker
14.6%+585
Matt
Chapman
TORYes101Jeffrey
Springs
14.6%+585
Bo
Bichette
TORYes101Jeffrey
Springs
14.6%+585
Alejandro
Kirk
TORYes101Jeffrey
Springs
14.6%+585
Gleyber
Torres
NYYNo101Luis
Garcia
14.5%+590
Eric
Hosmer
SDYes102Mitch
White
14.2%+605
Jace
Peterson
MILYes95JT
Brubaker
14.0%+615
Jeremy
Pena
HOUNo101Luis
Severino
13.8%+625
Andres
Gimenez
CLEYes103Chris
Archer
13.6%+635
Julio
Rodriguez
SEANo99Adrian
Martinez
13.6%+635
Seth
Brown
OAKYes96Logan
Gilbert
13.5%+640
Jake
Lamb
LADYes102Joe
Musgrove
13.5%+640
Luis
Urias
MILNo92JT
Brubaker
13.4%+645
Marcell
Ozuna
ATLNo110Aaron
Nola
13.4%+650
Yandy
Diaz
TBYes101Yusei
Kikuchi
13.1%+660
Gio
Urshela
MINNo99Shane
Bieber
12.9%+675
Franmil
Reyes
CLENo99Chris
Archer
12.9%+675
Rafael
Ortega
CHCYes96Graham
Ashcraft
12.8%+680
Freddie
Freeman
LADYes102Joe
Musgrove
12.8%+685
Cody
Bellinger
LADYes102Joe
Musgrove
12.8%+685
Travis
d'Arnaud
ATLNo110Aaron
Nola
12.6%+695
Jose
Trevino
NYYNo101Luis
Garcia
12.4%+705
Jake
Cronenworth
SDYes102Mitch
White
12.0%+730
Albert
Almora
Jr.
CINNo103Kyle
Hendricks
11.9%+740
Ha-Seong
Kim
SDNo107Mitch
White
11.5%+765
Cal
Raleigh
SEAYes96Adrian
Martinez
11.4%+775
Christian
Yelich
MILYes95JT
Brubaker
11.3%+785
Max
Muncy
LADYes102Joe
Musgrove
11.3%+785
Trent
Grisham
SDYes102Mitch
White
11.3%+785
Kyle
Farmer
CINNo103Kyle
Hendricks
11.2%+795
Dansby
Swanson
ATLNo110Aaron
Nola
11.0%+805
Max
Kepler
MINYes103Shane
Bieber
10.6%+840
Dan
Vogelbach
PITYes95Adrian
Houser
10.6%+840
Jack
Suwinski
PITYes95Adrian
Houser
10.6%+840
Nomar
Mazara
SDYes102Mitch
White
10.5%+850
Tommy
Pham
CINNo103Kyle
Hendricks
10.4%+860
Jonathan
India
CINNo103Kyle
Hendricks
10.4%+860
Alex
Bregman
HOUNo101Luis
Severino
10.2%+880
Jake
Meyers
HOUNo101Luis
Severino
10.2%+880
Wander
Franco
TBYes101Yusei
Kikuchi
10.0%+895
Carlos
Santana
SEAYes96Adrian
Martinez
10.0%+900
Alfonso
Rivas
CHCYes96Graham
Ashcraft
10.0%+900
Hoy
Park
PITYes95Adrian
Houser
9.9%+910
David
Bote
CHCNo103Graham
Ashcraft
9.6%+940
Nick
Castellanos
PHINo110Ian
Anderson
9.4%+965
Luke
Maile
CLENo99Chris
Archer
9.3%+975
Abraham
Toro
SEAYes96Adrian
Martinez
9.2%+985
Jesse
Winker
SEAYes96Adrian
Martinez
9.2%+985
Didi
Gregorius
PHIYes106Ian
Anderson
8.4%+1085
Kolten
Wong
MILYes95JT
Brubaker
8.4%+1090
Omar
Narvaez
MILYes95JT
Brubaker
8.4%+1090
Oneil
Cruz
PITYes95Adrian
Houser
8.4%+1090
Trayce
Thompson
LADNo107Joe
Musgrove
8.3%+1100
Aaron
Hicks
NYYYes102Luis
Garcia
8.1%+1130
Nico
Hoerner
CHCNo103Graham
Ashcraft
8.0%+1145
Martin
Maldonado
HOUNo101Luis
Severino
7.9%+1165
Yulieski
Gurriel
HOUNo101Luis
Severino
7.9%+1165
Myles
Straw
CLENo99Chris
Archer
7.7%+1190
Sheldon
Neuse
OAKNo99Logan
Gilbert
7.7%+1190
Oscar
Gonzalez
CLENo99Chris
Archer
7.7%+1190
Orlando
Arcia
ATLNo110Aaron
Nola
7.7%+1205
Mickey
Moniak
PHIYes106Ian
Anderson
7.6%+1220
Michael
Harris
II
ATLYes106Aaron
Nola
7.6%+1220
Andrew
McCutchen
MILNo92JT
Brubaker
7.2%+1280
Aramis
Garcia
CINNo103Kyle
Hendricks
7.2%+1285
Amed
Rosario
CLENo99Chris
Archer
7.0%+1340
Tony
Kemp
OAKYes96Logan
Gilbert
6.9%+1350
Bligh
Madris
PITYes95Adrian
Houser
6.8%+1365
Alex
Kirilloff
MINYes103Shane
Bieber
6.5%+1435
Stephen
Piscotty
OAKNo99Logan
Gilbert
6.1%+1530
Sam
Haggerty
SEAYes96Adrian
Martinez
6.1%+1540
Stephen
Vogt
OAKYes96Logan
Gilbert
6.1%+1540
Francisco
Mejia
TBYes101Yusei
Kikuchi
5.8%+1635
Taylor
Walls
TBYes101Yusei
Kikuchi
5.8%+1635
Ke'Bryan
Hayes
PITNo92Adrian
Houser
5.7%+1645
Steven
Kwan
CLEYes103Chris
Archer
5.6%+1675
Jurickson
Profar
SDYes102Mitch
White
5.6%+1690
Gavin
Lux
LADYes102Joe
Musgrove
5.6%+1690
Elvis
Andrus
OAKNo99Logan
Gilbert
5.3%+1780
Ramon
Laureano
OAKNo99Logan
Gilbert
5.3%+1780
Nick
Allen
OAKNo99Logan
Gilbert
5.3%+1780
Jason
Heyward
CHCYes96Graham
Ashcraft
5.3%+1795
Adam
Frazier
SEAYes96Adrian
Martinez
5.3%+1795
Josh
VanMeter
PITYes95Adrian
Houser
5.2%+1815