MLB

MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Friday 7/1/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at FanDuel Sportsbook.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
COLMerrill
Kelly
11.55.8653.2%37.1%23.7%13.9%7.5%
ATLMike
Minor
9.55.7952.0%36.0%22.8%13.2%7.0%
ARIAntonio
Senzatela
11.55.6449.5%33.6%20.8%11.8%6.1%
MINSpenser
Watkins
9.05.2843.3%28.0%16.4%8.8%4.3%
STLBailey
Falter
9.55.0539.3%24.5%13.9%7.1%3.4%
WSHTrevor
Rogers
9.55.0138.6%23.9%13.4%6.9%3.2%
TORCorey
Kluber
9.04.8936.5%22.2%12.2%6.1%2.8%
NYMGlenn
Otto
8.54.8635.9%21.8%11.9%5.9%2.7%
NYYAaron
Civale
8.04.6231.8%18.5%9.7%4.6%2.0%
MIAJosiah
Gray
9.54.4929.5%16.8%8.6%4.0%1.7%
BOSAdrian
Sampson
8.54.4829.4%16.6%8.5%3.9%1.7%
PHIMiles
Mikolas
9.54.4528.9%16.3%8.3%3.8%1.6%
SEAJames
Kaprielian
8.04.4428.7%16.1%8.2%3.8%1.6%
HOUMichael
Lorenzen
8.04.4328.5%16.0%8.1%3.7%1.6%
MILRoansy
Contreras
7.54.2926.2%14.3%7.0%3.1%1.3%
KCMichael
Pineda
8.04.2024.7%13.3%6.4%2.8%1.1%
LADBlake
Snell
7.54.1724.2%12.9%6.2%2.7%1.1%
TBJose
Berrios
9.04.1123.2%12.2%5.8%2.5%1.0%
SFLance
Lynn
7.54.0922.9%12.0%5.7%2.4%0.9%
CHCRich
Hill
8.54.0221.8%11.3%5.2%2.2%0.8%
DETBrad
Keller
8.03.8018.4%9.1%4.0%1.6%0.6%
BALJoe
Ryan
9.03.7217.3%8.4%3.6%1.4%0.5%
CINMax
Fried
9.53.7117.1%8.3%3.6%1.4%0.5%
TEXChris
Bassitt
8.53.6416.1%7.7%3.3%1.2%0.4%
LAACristian
Javier
8.03.5715.2%7.1%3.0%1.1%0.4%
OAKMarco
Gonzales
8.03.5615.0%7.0%2.9%1.1%0.4%
CHWAlex
Cobb
7.53.4113.1%5.9%2.3%0.8%0.3%
CLEGerrit
Cole
8.03.3812.7%5.6%2.2%0.8%0.3%
SDTony
Gonsolin
7.53.3312.1%5.3%2.1%0.7%0.2%
PITCorbin
Burnes
7.53.2110.7%4.5%1.7%0.6%0.2%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Corbin
Burnes
PIT8.296.3%91.1%82.6%70.9%57.3%43.4%30.7%
Gerrit
Cole
CLE7.091.8%82.6%69.8%54.9%40.0%27.0%16.8%
Cristian
Javier
LAA6.991.2%81.7%68.5%53.4%38.5%25.7%15.9%
Chris
Bassitt
TEX6.991.1%81.5%68.2%53.1%38.2%25.4%15.7%
Blake
Snell
LAD5.883.2%69.0%52.5%36.5%23.2%13.5%7.2%
Max
Fried
CIN5.579.8%64.2%47.1%31.4%19.1%10.6%5.4%
Tony
Gonsolin
SD5.579.4%63.6%46.4%30.8%18.6%10.2%5.2%
Josiah
Gray
MIA5.478.6%62.5%45.2%29.7%17.7%9.7%4.8%
Joe
Ryan
BAL5.478.6%62.5%45.2%29.7%17.7%9.7%4.8%
Miles
Mikolas
PHI5.377.2%60.7%43.3%28.0%16.4%8.8%4.3%
Alex
Cobb
CHW5.174.6%57.3%39.8%25.0%14.2%7.3%3.5%
Lance
Lynn
SF5.073.5%56.0%38.4%23.8%13.3%6.8%3.2%
Jose
Berrios
TB4.972.5%54.7%37.2%22.8%12.6%6.4%2.9%
Aaron
Civale
NYY4.870.4%52.2%34.7%20.8%11.2%5.5%2.5%
Trevor
Rogers
WSH4.769.7%51.3%33.9%20.1%10.8%5.2%2.3%
Mike
Minor
ATL4.768.9%50.4%33.0%19.4%10.3%5.0%2.2%
Rich
Hill
CHC4.667.9%49.2%31.9%18.6%9.8%4.7%2.0%
Corey
Kluber
TOR4.464.4%45.3%28.3%15.9%8.0%3.7%1.5%
Adrian
Sampson
BOS4.464.4%45.3%28.3%15.9%8.0%3.7%1.5%
Merrill
Kelly
COL4.463.9%44.7%27.8%15.5%7.8%3.5%1.5%
Bailey
Falter
STL4.363.0%43.7%27.0%14.9%7.4%3.3%1.4%
Michael
Pineda
KC4.362.6%43.3%26.7%14.7%7.3%3.2%1.3%
Marco
Gonzales
OAK4.361.9%42.6%26.0%14.2%7.0%3.1%1.3%
Michael
Lorenzen
HOU4.261.0%41.6%25.2%13.6%6.6%2.9%1.2%
Roansy
Contreras
MIL4.260.1%40.6%24.4%13.0%6.3%2.7%1.1%
Brad
Keller
DET4.057.2%37.7%22.0%11.4%5.3%2.2%0.9%
Antonio
Senzatela
ARI3.954.7%35.2%19.9%10.1%4.5%1.9%0.7%
Glenn
Otto
NYM3.853.3%33.8%18.9%9.4%4.2%1.7%0.6%
James
Kaprielian
SEA3.851.6%32.2%17.7%8.6%3.8%1.5%0.5%
Spenser
Watkins
MIN2.931.9%16.0%7.0%2.7%0.9%0.3%0.1%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Notes: The "Platoon?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Platoon? HR
PF
Opp
Pitcher
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Aaron
Judge
NYYNo99Aaron
Civale
29.0%+245
Dansby
Swanson
ATLYes111Mike
Minor
27.0%+270
Giancarlo
Stanton
NYYNo99Aaron
Civale
24.5%+310
Sean
Murphy
OAKYes99Marco
Gonzales
24.2%+315
Willy
Adames
MILNo92Roansy
Contreras
24.2%+315
Travis
d'Arnaud
ATLYes111Mike
Minor
23.5%+325
Rhys
Hoskins
PHINo110Miles
Mikolas
23.4%+330
Ronald
Acuna
ATLYes111Mike
Minor
23.0%+335
J.D.
Martinez
BOSNo103Adrian
Sampson
22.8%+340
Matt
Olson
ATLNo113Mike
Minor
22.3%+350
Jorge
Soler
MIANo106Josiah
Gray
21.7%+360
Byron
Buxton
MINNo98Spenser
Watkins
21.6%+365
Willson
Contreras
CHCYes103Rich
Hill
21.2%+370
Jesus
Aguilar
MIANo106Josiah
Gray
21.2%+370
Rafael
Devers
BOSYes96Adrian
Sampson
21.1%+375
Mike
Trout
LAANo101Cristian
Javier
21.0%+375
Yordan
Alvarez
HOUYes102Michael
Lorenzen
21.0%+375
Trevor
Story
BOSNo103Adrian
Sampson
20.8%+380
Eugenio
Suarez
SEANo99James
Kaprielian
20.7%+385
Anthony
Rizzo
NYYYes103Aaron
Civale
20.6%+385
Vladimir
Guerrero
Jr.
TORNo101Corey
Kluber
20.5%+390
Shohei
Ohtani
LAAYes102Cristian
Javier
20.4%+390
Trea
Turner
LADYes107Blake
Snell
20.0%+400
Rowdy
Tellez
MILYes95Roansy
Contreras
19.9%+400
Kyle
Schwarber
PHIYes106Miles
Mikolas
19.9%+405
Patrick
Wisdom
CHCYes103Rich
Hill
19.5%+415
George
Springer
TORNo101Corey
Kluber
19.4%+415
Marcell
Ozuna
ATLYes111Mike
Minor
19.3%+420
Austin
Riley
ATLYes111Mike
Minor
19.3%+420
Josh
Donaldson
NYYNo99Aaron
Civale
19.1%+425
Anthony
Santander
BALYes99Joe
Ryan
18.9%+430
Chris
Taylor
LADYes107Blake
Snell
18.8%+435
Will
Smith
LADYes107Blake
Snell
18.8%+435
Joc
Pederson
SFYes87Lance
Lynn
18.6%+435
Josh
Bell
WSHYes106Trevor
Rogers
18.6%+435
Nolan
Arenado
STLYes110Bailey
Falter
18.5%+440
Adolis
Garcia
TEXNo98Chris
Bassitt
18.4%+445
Chad
Pinder
OAKYes99Marco
Gonzales
18.3%+445
Luis
Urias
MILNo92Roansy
Contreras
18.0%+455
Jesus
Sanchez
MIAYes104Josiah
Gray
17.8%+465
Taylor
Ward
LAANo101Cristian
Javier
17.6%+465
Hunter
Dozier
KCNo99Michael
Pineda
17.4%+475
Christian
Walker
ARINo108Antonio
Senzatela
17.3%+480
Ryan
Mountcastle
BALNo98Joe
Ryan
17.2%+480
Bryan
Reynolds
PITYes95Corbin
Burnes
17.1%+485
Cedric
Mullins
BALYes99Joe
Ryan
17.1%+485
Tyrone
Taylor
MILNo92Roansy
Contreras
17.0%+490
Kyle
Tucker
HOUYes102Michael
Lorenzen
16.9%+495
Bobby
Dalbec
BOSNo103Adrian
Sampson
16.7%+500
Evan
Longoria
SFNo90Lance
Lynn
16.7%+500
Pete
Alonso
NYMNo98Glenn
Otto
16.6%+500
Ji-Man
Choi
TBYes94Jose
Berrios
16.4%+510
Julio
Rodriguez
SEANo99James
Kaprielian
16.2%+520
Austin
Hays
BALNo98Joe
Ryan
16.0%+525
Randal
Grichuk
COLNo108Merrill
Kelly
16.0%+525
Oneil
Cruz
PITYes95Corbin
Burnes
15.9%+530
Joey
Votto
CINNo113Max
Fried
15.8%+530
Teoscar
Hernandez
TORNo101Corey
Kluber
15.8%+535
Adam
Duvall
ATLYes111Mike
Minor
15.8%+535
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes103Gerrit
Cole
15.7%+540
Trey
Mancini
BALNo98Joe
Ryan
15.4%+550
Corey
Seager
TEXYes95Chris
Bassitt
15.3%+555
Brandon
Drury
CINYes111Max
Fried
15.0%+565
Charlie
Blackmon
COLYes109Merrill
Kelly
15.0%+565
David
Peralta
ARIYes109Antonio
Senzatela
15.0%+565
Javier
Baez
DETNo99Brad
Keller
14.9%+570
Paul
Goldschmidt
STLYes110Bailey
Falter
14.9%+570
Juan
Soto
WSHNo104Trevor
Rogers
14.8%+575
Gio
Urshela
MINNo98Spenser
Watkins
14.8%+575
Gary
Sanchez
MINNo98Spenser
Watkins
14.8%+575
Darick
Hall
PHIYes106Miles
Mikolas
14.7%+580
Jorge
Polanco
MINYes99Spenser
Watkins
14.5%+590
Manny
Machado
SDNo107Tony
Gonsolin
14.5%+590
Maikel
Franco
WSHYes106Trevor
Rogers
14.4%+590
Lane
Thomas
WSHYes106Trevor
Rogers
14.4%+590
Josh
Naylor
CLEYes103Gerrit
Cole
14.3%+600
Ketel
Marte
ARIYes109Antonio
Senzatela
14.3%+600
Starling
Marte
NYMNo98Glenn
Otto
14.1%+610
Carlos
Correa
MINNo98Spenser
Watkins
14.1%+610
Juan
Yepez
STLYes110Bailey
Falter
14.1%+610
Jonah
Heim
TEXYes95Chris
Bassitt
14.0%+615
Matt
Chapman
TORNo101Corey
Kluber
13.8%+625
Luke
Voit
SDNo107Tony
Gonsolin
13.8%+625
Cal
Raleigh
SEAYes96James
Kaprielian
13.5%+640
Jared
Walsh
LAAYes102Cristian
Javier
13.5%+640
Jose
Miranda
MINNo98Spenser
Watkins
13.5%+645
Michael
Perez
PITYes95Corbin
Burnes
13.4%+650
Ian
Happ
CHCYes103Rich
Hill
13.4%+650
Didi
Gregorius
PHIYes106Miles
Mikolas
13.2%+660
Max
Kepler
MINYes99Spenser
Watkins
13.2%+660
C.J.
Cron
COLNo108Merrill
Kelly
13.1%+660
Brendan
Rodgers
COLNo108Merrill
Kelly
13.1%+660
Andrew
Vaughn
CHWNo90Alex
Cobb
13.1%+660
Jose
Altuve
HOUNo101Michael
Lorenzen
13.1%+660
Lourdes
Gurriel
TORNo101Corey
Kluber
13.1%+660
Nelson
Cruz
WSHYes106Trevor
Rogers
12.9%+675
Daulton
Varsho
ARIYes109Antonio
Senzatela
12.7%+685
Christian
Yelich
MILYes95Roansy
Contreras
12.7%+685
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEXYes95Chris
Bassitt
12.7%+685
Orlando
Arcia
ATLYes111Mike
Minor
12.6%+695
MJ
Melendez
KCYes94Michael
Pineda
12.6%+695
Curt
Casali
SFNo90Lance
Lynn
12.5%+700
Dylan
Carlson
STLYes110Bailey
Falter
12.5%+700
Rougned
Odor
BALYes99Joe
Ryan
12.5%+705
Max
Stassi
LAANo101Cristian
Javier
12.4%+705
Bo
Bichette
TORNo101Corey
Kluber
12.4%+705
Alejandro
Kirk
TORNo101Corey
Kluber
12.4%+705
Chas
McCormick
HOUNo101Michael
Lorenzen
12.4%+705
Brandon
Belt
SFYes87Lance
Lynn
12.4%+705
Mike
Yastrzemski
SFYes87Lance
Lynn
12.4%+705
Elias
Diaz
COLNo108Merrill
Kelly
12.4%+705
Franmil
Reyes
CLENo99Gerrit
Cole
12.2%+720
Mitch
Garver
TEXNo98Chris
Bassitt
12.1%+725
Alek
Thomas
ARIYes109Antonio
Senzatela
12.0%+735
Wilmer
Flores
SFNo90Lance
Lynn
11.9%+740
Luis
Robert
CHWNo90Alex
Cobb
11.9%+740
Christopher
Morel
CHCYes103Rich
Hill
11.8%+745
Tommy
Edman
STLYes110Bailey
Falter
11.7%+755
Connor
Joe
COLNo108Merrill
Kelly
11.6%+760
Miguel
Rojas
MIANo106Josiah
Gray
11.4%+775
Jorge
Mateo
BALNo98Joe
Ryan
11.4%+775
Jace
Peterson
MILYes95Roansy
Contreras
11.3%+785
Dan
Vogelbach
PITYes95Corbin
Burnes
11.3%+785
LaMonte
Wade
Jr
SFYes87Lance
Lynn
11.1%+800
David
Bote
CHCYes103Rich
Hill
11.0%+805
Martin
Maldonado
HOUNo101Michael
Lorenzen
11.0%+810
Randy
Arozarena
TBNo101Jose
Berrios
11.0%+810
Jeremy
Pena
HOUNo101Michael
Lorenzen
11.0%+810
Freddie
Freeman
LADNo102Blake
Snell
10.9%+815
Mickey
Moniak
PHIYes106Miles
Mikolas
10.9%+820
Albert
Pujols
STLYes110Bailey
Falter
10.8%+825
Edmundo
Sosa
STLYes110Bailey
Falter
10.8%+825
Bobby
Witt
Jr.
KCNo99Michael
Pineda
10.8%+830
DJ
LeMahieu
NYYNo99Aaron
Civale
10.8%+830
Gleyber
Torres
NYYNo99Aaron
Civale
10.8%+830
Jarren
Duran
BOSYes96Adrian
Sampson
10.7%+835
Christian
Bethancourt
OAKYes99Marco
Gonzales
10.7%+840
Ramon
Laureano
OAKYes99Marco
Gonzales
10.7%+840
Brandon
Nimmo
NYMYes95Glenn
Otto
10.6%+840
Jose
Abreu
CHWNo90Alex
Cobb
10.6%+845
Justin
Turner
LADYes107Blake
Snell
10.6%+845
Michael
Harris II
ATLNo113Mike
Minor
10.5%+850
Yan
Gomes
CHCYes103Rich
Hill
10.2%+880
Nick
Castellanos
PHINo110Miles
Mikolas
10.2%+880
J.T.
Realmuto
PHINo110Miles
Mikolas
10.2%+880
Spencer
Torkelson
DETNo99Brad
Keller
10.0%+895
Tommy
Pham
CINYes111Max
Fried
10.0%+895
Jesse
Winker
SEAYes96James
Kaprielian
10.0%+900
Abraham
Toro
SEAYes96James
Kaprielian
10.0%+900
Tim
Anderson
CHWNo90Alex
Cobb
9.9%+910
Kolten
Wong
MILYes95Roansy
Contreras
9.9%+910
Jack
Suwinski
PITYes95Corbin
Burnes
9.9%+910
Gavin
Sheets
CHWYes87Alex
Cobb
9.8%+920
Andrew
Benintendi
KCYes94Michael
Pineda
9.8%+920
Victor
Reyes
DETYes94Brad
Keller
9.8%+920
Wander
Franco
TBYes94Jose
Berrios
9.8%+920
Andrew
Velazquez
LAAYes102Cristian
Javier
9.7%+925
Luis
Rengifo
LAAYes102Cristian
Javier
9.7%+925
Trent
Grisham
SDYes102Tony
Gonsolin
9.7%+925
Brandon
Marsh
LAAYes102Cristian
Javier
9.7%+925
Max
Muncy
LADNo102Blake
Snell
9.6%+940
Ryan
McMahon
COLYes109Merrill
Kelly
9.5%+955
Alex
Kirilloff
MINYes99Spenser
Watkins
9.5%+955
Alex
Bregman
HOUNo101Michael
Lorenzen
9.5%+955
Andrew
McCutchen
MILNo92Roansy
Contreras
9.4%+965
Ke'Bryan
Hayes
PITNo92Corbin
Burnes
9.4%+965
Carlos
Santana
SEAYes96James
Kaprielian
9.2%+985
Carson
Kelly
ARINo108Antonio
Senzatela
9.2%+985
Marcus
Semien
TEXNo98Chris
Bassitt
9.2%+985
Eduardo
Escobar
NYMYes95Glenn
Otto
9.1%+995
Kyle
Farmer
CINYes111Max
Fried
9.1%+995
Garrett
Cooper
MIANo106Josiah
Gray
9.1%+1000
Francisco
Mejia
TBYes94Jose
Berrios
9.1%+1005
Sheldon
Neuse
OAKYes99Marco
Gonzales
9.1%+1005
Cody
Bellinger
LADNo102Blake
Snell
9.0%+1015
Eric
Hosmer
SDYes102Tony
Gonsolin
8.9%+1020
Trayce
Thompson
LADYes107Blake
Snell
8.8%+1030
Adley
Rutschman
BALYes99Joe
Ryan
8.7%+1050
Isaac
Paredes
TBNo101Jose
Berrios
8.7%+1050
Whit
Merrifield
KCNo99Michael
Pineda
8.5%+1070
Thairo
Estrada
SFNo90Lance
Lynn
8.5%+1070
Buddy
Kennedy
ARINo108Antonio
Senzatela
8.4%+1090
Nicky
Lopez
KCYes94Michael
Pineda
8.3%+1105
Taylor
Walls
TBYes94Jose
Berrios
8.3%+1105
Brian
Anderson
MIANo106Josiah
Gray
8.2%+1115
Albert
Almora
Jr.
CINYes111Max
Fried
8.2%+1120
Andres
Gimenez
CLEYes103Gerrit
Cole
8.2%+1120
Nomar
Mazara
SDYes102Tony
Gonsolin
8.1%+1130
Yandy
Diaz
TBNo101Jose
Berrios
7.9%+1165
Santiago
Espinal
TORNo101Corey
Kluber
7.9%+1165
A.J.
Pollock
CHWNo90Alex
Cobb
7.8%+1180
Michael
Taylor
KCNo99Michael
Pineda
7.7%+1190
Luke
Maile
CLENo99Gerrit
Cole
7.7%+1190
Myles
Straw
CLENo99Gerrit
Cole
7.7%+1190
Oscar
Gonzalez
CLENo99Gerrit
Cole
7.7%+1190
Yoan
Moncada
CHWYes87Alex
Cobb
7.7%+1190
Alex
Verdugo
BOSYes96Adrian
Sampson
7.7%+1200
Sam
Haggerty
SEAYes96James
Kaprielian
7.7%+1200
Kole
Calhoun
TEXYes95Chris
Bassitt
7.6%+1210
Jeff
McNeil
NYMYes95Glenn
Otto
7.6%+1210
Hoy
Park
PITYes95Corbin
Burnes
7.6%+1210
Cavan
Biggio
TORYes94Corey
Kluber
7.5%+1225
Avisail
Garcia
MIANo106Josiah
Gray
7.4%+1250
Jake
Cronenworth
SDYes102Tony
Gonsolin
7.3%+1270
Donovan
Solano
CINYes111Max
Fried
7.3%+1275
Luis
Arraez
MINYes99Spenser
Watkins
7.1%+1310
Yulieski
Gurriel
HOUNo101Michael
Lorenzen
7.1%+1310
David
MacKinnon
LAANo101Cristian
Javier
7.1%+1310
Tommy
La
Stella
SFYes87Lance
Lynn
7.0%+1325
Cesar
Hernandez
WSHYes106Trevor
Rogers
7.0%+1335
Keibert
Ruiz
WSHYes106Trevor
Rogers
7.0%+1335
Josh
Rojas
ARIYes109Antonio
Senzatela
6.9%+1355
Josh
VanMeter
PITYes95Corbin
Burnes
6.8%+1365
Leody
Taveras
TEXYes95Chris
Bassitt
6.8%+1365
Bligh
Madris
PITYes95Corbin
Burnes
6.8%+1365
Nico
Hoerner
CHCYes103Rich
Hill
6.8%+1375
P.J.
Higgins
CHCYes103Rich
Hill
6.8%+1375
Tucker
Barnhart
DETYes94Brad
Keller
6.8%+1375
Kris
Bryant
COLNo108Merrill
Kelly
6.7%+1400
Jacob
Stallings
MIANo106Josiah
Gray
6.5%+1430
Jurickson
Profar
SDYes102Tony
Gonsolin
6.5%+1450
Brendan
Donovan
STLNo106Bailey
Falter
6.4%+1460
Jonathan
Arauz
BALYes99Joe
Ryan
6.3%+1495
Harold
Ramirez
TBNo101Jose
Berrios
6.3%+1500